Historical data: From the time when the Fed stopped raising interest rates to the time when it cut interest rates, the S&P 500 has an average increase of about 15% in history. In the six historical periods, there were five increases (and a decline in 2001). After the Fed cut interest rates, without exception, the average decline was more than 27%.
This round of interest rate hikes is coming to an end, and the probability of another 25% increase in May has reached 89.1%. Will there be another increase after the May increase? Another increase would be bad news, while a stop to interest rate hikes would be good news.
PCE data is due for release this week.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin closed as a bearish engulfing on a weekly basis, and the decline has not yet been confirmed. The pressure for a rebound is at 28,400. The probability of a new low is quite high. The support levels are still seen at 26,600 and 25,200.
Last week's article "Qingmei Zhubi: Pay attention to the three points of 27800, 26600 and 25200 when Bitcoin pulls back" argues that the A wave of the retracement may be a three-wave structure, but the actual decline is faster, so the possibility of a 5-wave structure is greater. The bottom of the A wave has not yet been found, and the more likely position is around 26600.
The speculation on the subsequent market is as follows:
