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USDC issues nearly $2 billion more in one week—what supports Circle’s next growth cycle?

1.USDC ends nearly six months of sideways, weak performance, adding about $1.7 billion to $2.0 billion in supply within a week, becoming a direct signal that Circle’s fundamentals are recovering.

2.Awarded Circle a “beat the broader market” rating with a $140 target price, the long-term thesis hinges on whether Arc can convert institutional partnerships into assets, settlement, and revenue.

3.USDC’s total supply still lags behind USDT, but in transaction volumes after excluding bots and high-frequency activity, USDC’s share has already risen to 60% or more in 2026.

4.Real-world stablecoin payments are growing at about 30% year over year, but they currently account for only around 3% of adjusted transaction volume—so they have not yet become a major source of demand.

5.AI agent payments see nearly 19 million monthly transactions, but the value is only about $1 million; at this stage, it mainly reflects infrastructure adoption.

USDC re-expands, and the top-tier competitive landscape has not changed for now

Even with supply below USDT, USDC captures more effective trading volume

Payments grow steadily, while AI agents remain stuck in “small-ticket, high-frequency”

Arc will be the real test of Circle’s platformization

At this stage, Circle’s most certain growth still comes from the rebound in USDC supply and an increase in trading share. Payment rails, tokenized asset economics, and AI agent activity also offer further room to expand valuation potential, but these businesses still need to go through the transformation from partnership announcements to infrastructure adoption, and ultimately to asset realization and revenue capture.

Next, the market needs to watch four variables:
1.Can USDC supply continue to grow?
2.Can the adjusted transaction share hold steady?
3.Can the share of real-world payments increase?
4.After Arc goes live, can it attract real assets and pull transactions in?

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