According to historical data from the US midterm elections:

1) Scenario with a divided Congress: S&P 500 average annual return of 14% (the most likely scenario after this midterm election)

2) A Democratic president and a Republican-controlled Congress: the S&P 500’s average annual return is 13% (the next most likely scenario after this midterm election)

3) A Democratic Party is president and controls Congress: the S&P 500 has an average annual return of 10% (current situation)

Simply put, once the status quo is disrupted, U.S. stocks will return better than they currently do. Stocks typically do well after the U.S. midterm elections. Why? Because deadlocks often occur, policy changes that could hit the stock market are avoided. In addition, Trump may announce his candidacy for president a week after the midterm elections (given his influence, it may trigger a wave of turmoil in the market)