The current market trend is very similar to that in 2018, when Bitcoin rose continuously from early February to March 5 (the highest point of the stage), basically doubling in price. It began to fall and fluctuate on March 5 for a month, and was adjusted in place in early April. It rose on April 10 until May 5 (the second highest point), and then fell all the way until mid-July. The second small market started in mid-to-late July-August.
Several rules of the Bitcoin market: Bitcoin pulls up the market, sucks blood from the copycats, and the copycats are half dead. One day, in a continuous accelerated rise, Bitcoin hits a new high. After reaching the peak, the profit-taking begins to withdraw quickly, and the high-level Bitcoin will close with an extremely long upper shadow line.
After reaching the peak, Bitcoin funds withdrew, and all altcoins plunged with Bitcoin. Soon after the plunge, smart money quickly reacted, and mainstream coins such as Ethereum quickly pulled back to complete an amazing V-shaped reversal, leaving behind an extremely long lower shadow, and the amplitude was extremely large on the day.
There are two ways for the altcoins to go. The first is that the profits from Bitcoin come out and flow into the altcoins (the altcoins have already plunged, the chip cost is very low, and the market is in a panic of the plunge). Then the altcoins will start a round of flourishing, with a general rise, or the hot mainstream sectors will rotate and rise.
The second is that the big pie reaches its peak, the profit-making funds come out, the market ends, and a few months of falling consolidation begins. The cottage market continues to fall until the adjustment period ends. Although it is a bit premature, the historical trend of the big pie is definitely of certain reference value. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates on May 3 is close to 90%, and the probability of a 25 bp rate hike is 63%. If nothing unexpected happens, it should be the last rate hike this year. Combined with the trend of the big pie in 2018, the current deflationary macroeconomic environment, and the cottage market dominated by retained funds on the market, the most prudent approach is:
April 21st-May 3rd
1. The maximum position is kept at around 20%. Conservatives should keep short positions and wait for opportunities.
2. 20% of the positions are mainly ARB, OP (RNDT, MAGIC, GMX, velo and other ecological leaders), LSD/LSDfi, and other L2#BTC #crypto2023 #ETH #Binance #Web3