Will Bitcoin need a pullback? With less than 60 days until the halving, add bargain hunting coins!

蟹老板的进击之路 · 2024-02-22T07:20:16.000Z

Now the whole market is going very confused, and the pie is hard, surprisingly hard. However, if the market breaks through above 52,000, the more it goes on the current uptrend without a major correction, the more unsafe I feel. The main reasons are: This industry is still a market where only 10% of people can make money from 90% of people. But now that the market keeps rising, with the support of lowering interest rates, spreading money, and printing unlimited money, how can we realize that 10% of people can make money from 90% of people? My guess is that it is rising, rising, and rising. It rises to the point where you doubt your life, and it rises to the point where you make up your mind not to miss out even if you are trapped to death. Only when you chase the high can you resist the follow-up. Smash, smash, keep smashing the market. Otherwise, if everyone runs away as soon as the market crashes, how can the 10% of people ship?

The whole market is very confused now, and the market is strong, surprisingly strong. However, the market that breaks through 52,000, the more it goes up without a big correction, the more unsafe it feels. The main reasons are:

This circle is still a market where only 10% of people can make money from 90% of people. And with the current rising market, how can 10% of people make money from 90% of people without the support of interest rate cuts, money easing, and unlimited money printing?

My guess is, the price will rise, rise, and rise again, until you doubt your life, and make up your mind not to miss the opportunity even if you are trapped. Only then can you who chase high prices withstand the subsequent market crashes, crashes, and continuous crashes. Otherwise, if everyone runs away as soon as the market crashes, how will the 10% of people sell their goods?

There is no market that keeps rising, nor does there exist a market that keeps falling. Even if it is so hard that it can only fall back to the 43,000-45,000 range, it will still fall back to accumulate momentum.

With such high treasury bond interest rates, does the stock market, which has been rising all the way, need to slow down and adjust and accumulate momentum? Otherwise, if the stock market has risen to this level in the era of high interest rates without any interest rate cuts, will it continue to rise without looking back when the real interest rate cuts and monetary easing come later? Will the bubble be so serious that it cannot be controlled?

In summary, I personally think that the current position of Bitcoin needs a correction, both technically and macro-environmentally. It is also necessary to step back to the 43,000-45,000 range to accumulate momentum, and the probability of flying up from the spot is not high.

What to expect before Bitcoin halving

With the Bitcoin halving approaching, investors are focusing on potential market moves that historically mark the start of a new bull market.

With 56 days until the critical moment in April 2024, a look at Bitcoin’s past reveals a pattern. Price adjustments before the halving often herald a sharp rebound after the halving.

Bitcoin price adjustment before halving
Trend analysis of Bitcoin since its inception in 2009 highlights a recurring theme. In fact, the price drops significantly before each halving, setting the stage for a subsequent market surge.

For example, in 2012, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply by 50.78% a few months before the halving. However, Bitcoin has since climbed to new heights. Similar patterns were seen in 2016 and 2020, with corrections of 40.37% and a sharp drop of 63.09% before the halving, respectively, followed by strong recoveries after the halving.

As of early 2024, Bitcoin has grown by 21.17%, sparking speculation that a bull run is imminent. However, if historical patterns are any indication, the market could be ready for a correction, potentially dropping below $45,000 before rebounding post-halving.

Bull run begins after halving
The importance of these halving events cannot be overstated. Following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin has seen gains of 11,000%, 3,072%, and 700%, respectively.

These bullish momentum lasted between 365 and 549 days, reflecting the profound impact of the halving on market dynamics.

If the upcoming bull run follows the trajectory of the past, the next peak in the Bitcoin market could occur around April or October 2025.

Nvidia's financial report reduces the risk of the stock market. Bitcoin has currently entered a short-term period of shock adjustment. As long as the broader market does not fall sharply, the corresponding copycat sectors and market hot spots will continue to be hyped. For example, in the#AItrack, related coins have been rising. Hot spots in traditional markets will also shine in the crypto market in the future. Even if there is nothing, the biggest feature of the crypto market is that it is particularly easy to get involved.

The short-term level of Bitcoin depends on the position of 51,000. If it can hold, it will continue to fluctuate and adjust. If it cannot hold, it will continue to move downward to verify the support level near 48,000. But don’t worry too much. Before the halving, it will basically be a volatile adjustment.

In terms of cycles, the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is impeccable. We understand that some investors who have received the results will make necessary profit when they deem appropriate. We believe that institutions with an average price of 40,000 will not allow themselves to be bruised and battered in this market.

In the short-term correction, if you are given the opportunity to enter the market with suitable high-quality targets, don't hesitate too much. The market will not give opportunities to those who miss out again and again. The market is ever-changing, and most people believe that their operations will end with losses. So when the situation is unpredictable, be brave to be a market contrarian under the change of macro conditions, and when everyone starts to fomo in the later stage, transfer your profit to them and leave the market gracefully.

Create a high-quality circle

Spot mainly

I will share some content: as shown below:

This is the end of the article. I will come to you for a more detailed analysis. If you want to join my circle, please contact XL895889 directly and I will reply in time~!