Currently, the risk of recession in the U.S. economy seems to be approaching. Recently, two giants on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase simultaneously issued warnings that expectations of a U.S. economic recession and hard landing are beginning to be reflected in the market, and investors have begun to play out the "script" of an economic recession.

At the same time, a wave of bankruptcies is sweeping small businesses in the United States. According to data provided by the American Bankruptcy Association, as of February 2023, the number of bankruptcy applications per month exceeded 31,000, an increase of 18% year-on-year. The UBS Econ report also showed that at the end of February, the four-week moving average of private bankruptcy applications in the United States was 73% higher than in June 2020. This means that small businesses in the United States are experiencing a wave of bankruptcies, and the number of bankruptcies has exceeded the period when the economy was shut down due to the epidemic lockdown.

The latest recession probability model of the media shows that the probability of a recession in the US economy as early as July this year has risen to 97% from the previous forecast of 76%.

At the same time, the recession indicator known as "Powell's favorite": the 3-month-18-month U.S. Treasury bond interest rate spread sounded the alarm. The spread, which has been in negative territory since November, fell again this week, approaching -170 basis points on Thursday. According to Refinitiv data, the level of inversion is the largest since at least 2007.

With the emergence of more economic data, the US economic recession will basically be reflected in the second half of the year, and the interest rate hike in May will most likely be the last one this year!

If the economy continues to deteriorate, the Fed will have to consider including a rate cut in the meeting minutes, but there is no data to support this. However, the probability of a rate cut at the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025 is still quite high.

By then, the east wind of the US dollar and BTC market, which have been dormant for three years, may be hurricane-level! Coupled with the BTC halving in May next year and the halving of a number of smaller players, this east wind will reorganize and distribute wealth on both the east and west coasts of the Pacific. Are you ready?

Have you planned your long-term position? Reasonably allocating our assets and allocating them in the long, medium and short term is a good asset portfolio that allows us to obtain the greatest possible returns with minimal risk!