No more rate hikes: Markets believe the Fed is about to pause rate hikes

The market does not expect any further rate hikes this year, with a less than 50% chance of a 25 basis point increase in May.

  • The chances of further rate hikes appear to have evaporated following the recent release of weak U.S. macro data.

  • Now, a pause is the preferred option for the next two meetings, with about 75 basis points of rate cuts for the full year.

  • The market believes that US interest rates will be between 4-4.25% by the end of the year.

  • Australia's central bank joins Canada in 'pausing' interest rates.

  • Liquidity is drying up; banks are reluctant to lend when the economy slows. These are likely to be the biggest headwinds Bitcoin will face.

Meeting probability: (Source CME)
Australian and Canadian bank interest rates: (Source: Trading View)

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