Suppose there’s a guy named Xiao En who works the night shift at the startup park duty room. The coworker on duty with him, Lao Bai, only buys $BTC and doesn’t even look at other coins. Xiao En set up his own rule: no matter whether $ENS went up or down that day, as long as its day-over-day close change was 3 percentage points or more higher than $BTC ’s close comparison, he would buy 1000 USDT at that day’s close, then count forward 3 already-closed daily candles and sell at that day’s close. If a previous position hadn’t been sold yet, he would skip even if another signal appeared.
I ran this rule on Binance spot ENS/USDT and BTC/USDT closed daily candles from August 17 to November 14 (UTC, 90 candles total). The candle on November 15 hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included. During this period, there were 89 days that could be compared with the previous day’s close, and on 14 of those days $ENS ’s close comparison was 3 points or more higher than $BTC ’s. Of those 14 days, $ENS itself closed up 13 days and closed down 1 day; $BTC closed up 11 days and down 3 days.
Among the 14 signals, 5 were skipped because the previous position hadn’t been sold yet; another 1 was on November 12, and the November 15 candle to be sold on hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t counted. In practice, 8 trades were executed, 4 winners and 4 losers. None of the trades handed off on the same day, but 3 times it sold one day and bought back in the next. Turning 1000 USDT over 8 rounds ended at 1382.91, a compounded gain of +38.29%, averaging +4.80% per round. The first 4 trades were 3 wins and 1 loss, compounding to +37.96%, ending with an account value of 1379.63; the last 4 trades were 1 win and 3 losses, and the compounded result was only +0.24%. The best trade was buying at the August 19 close of 4.24 and selling at the August 22 close of 5.67, +33.73% — that day $ENS was +10.13% vs. the prior close, while $BTC was +7.12%, just 3.01 points lower, right on the edge of the rule. The worst trade was buying at the September 8 close of 6.23 and selling at the September 11 close of 5.76, -7.54%. If you remove the best trade, the remaining 7 trades were 3 wins and 4 losses, and the compounded result was only +3.41%.
If Lao Bai had bought at the August 17 open of 3.92 and held until the November 14 close of 3.8, 1000 USDT would have become 969.39, or -3.06%. Over the same period, $BTC went from the August 17 open to the November 14 close for +1.99%.
Looking back, the day with the biggest relative edge was actually a day when he was already in the market. On August 21, $ENS was +31.04% versus the prior close, while $BTC was +7.28%, a difference of 23.77 points — the largest gap among the 14 occurrences — but the position bought on August 19 wasn’t sold until August 22, so a new position couldn’t be opened according to the rule. He was already holding it, and when it was sold, that trade happened to be the best one at +33.73%. The gap came in late September: on September 20 he sold the 6th trade at 6.49, with the account at 1452.34; on September 23, the intraday high reached 7.44, the highest price in those 90 days, while he was flat. Lao Bai’s account that day could have reached 1897.96 intraday (+89.80%). Xiao En then bought back in at the September 24 close of 7.08; the next day, September 25, it closed at 7.19, which was the highest closing price in those 90 days, and this trade was sold at the September 27 close of 7.01, losing 0.99%. After the 8th trade sold on October 2 at 6.78, there were no more complete trades through November 14. On November 14, the intraday low was 3.67 and the close was 3.8, both the lowest in those 90 days; compared with the November 13 close, it fell 10.38%, which was 4.28 points worse than $BTC ’s -6.10% that day. From that September 23 peak price to the November 14 close, it pulled back 48.92%, and to get back up it would need to rise another 95.79%; 52 days passed in between.
November 12 actually matched the rule again: $ENS closed at 4.37, down 0.23% versus the previous day, the only day among the 14 when $ENS itself closed down, while $BTC fell 3.45% that day, still leaving a 3.22-point advantage. The sell date would have been November 15, but that candle hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included.
Lao Bai has held all the way through and is down 3.06%; Xiao En’s 8 trades were half winners and half losers, and almost all of the excess profit came from the first trade — remove it and only +3.41% remains. The above is historical data based on closed candles only; it doesn’t indicate future performance and is not investment advice. If you buy when the close comparison beats $BTC by 3 points and sell after counting 3 days, or if you just hold all the way through, which side would you stand on?
I ran this rule on Binance spot ENS/USDT and BTC/USDT closed daily candles from August 17 to November 14 (UTC, 90 candles total). The candle on November 15 hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included. During this period, there were 89 days that could be compared with the previous day’s close, and on 14 of those days $ENS ’s close comparison was 3 points or more higher than $BTC ’s. Of those 14 days, $ENS itself closed up 13 days and closed down 1 day; $BTC closed up 11 days and down 3 days.
Among the 14 signals, 5 were skipped because the previous position hadn’t been sold yet; another 1 was on November 12, and the November 15 candle to be sold on hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t counted. In practice, 8 trades were executed, 4 winners and 4 losers. None of the trades handed off on the same day, but 3 times it sold one day and bought back in the next. Turning 1000 USDT over 8 rounds ended at 1382.91, a compounded gain of +38.29%, averaging +4.80% per round. The first 4 trades were 3 wins and 1 loss, compounding to +37.96%, ending with an account value of 1379.63; the last 4 trades were 1 win and 3 losses, and the compounded result was only +0.24%. The best trade was buying at the August 19 close of 4.24 and selling at the August 22 close of 5.67, +33.73% — that day $ENS was +10.13% vs. the prior close, while $BTC was +7.12%, just 3.01 points lower, right on the edge of the rule. The worst trade was buying at the September 8 close of 6.23 and selling at the September 11 close of 5.76, -7.54%. If you remove the best trade, the remaining 7 trades were 3 wins and 4 losses, and the compounded result was only +3.41%.
If Lao Bai had bought at the August 17 open of 3.92 and held until the November 14 close of 3.8, 1000 USDT would have become 969.39, or -3.06%. Over the same period, $BTC went from the August 17 open to the November 14 close for +1.99%.
Looking back, the day with the biggest relative edge was actually a day when he was already in the market. On August 21, $ENS was +31.04% versus the prior close, while $BTC was +7.28%, a difference of 23.77 points — the largest gap among the 14 occurrences — but the position bought on August 19 wasn’t sold until August 22, so a new position couldn’t be opened according to the rule. He was already holding it, and when it was sold, that trade happened to be the best one at +33.73%. The gap came in late September: on September 20 he sold the 6th trade at 6.49, with the account at 1452.34; on September 23, the intraday high reached 7.44, the highest price in those 90 days, while he was flat. Lao Bai’s account that day could have reached 1897.96 intraday (+89.80%). Xiao En then bought back in at the September 24 close of 7.08; the next day, September 25, it closed at 7.19, which was the highest closing price in those 90 days, and this trade was sold at the September 27 close of 7.01, losing 0.99%. After the 8th trade sold on October 2 at 6.78, there were no more complete trades through November 14. On November 14, the intraday low was 3.67 and the close was 3.8, both the lowest in those 90 days; compared with the November 13 close, it fell 10.38%, which was 4.28 points worse than $BTC ’s -6.10% that day. From that September 23 peak price to the November 14 close, it pulled back 48.92%, and to get back up it would need to rise another 95.79%; 52 days passed in between.
November 12 actually matched the rule again: $ENS closed at 4.37, down 0.23% versus the previous day, the only day among the 14 when $ENS itself closed down, while $BTC fell 3.45% that day, still leaving a 3.22-point advantage. The sell date would have been November 15, but that candle hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included.
Lao Bai has held all the way through and is down 3.06%; Xiao En’s 8 trades were half winners and half losers, and almost all of the excess profit came from the first trade — remove it and only +3.41% remains. The above is historical data based on closed candles only; it doesn’t indicate future performance and is not investment advice. If you buy when the close comparison beats $BTC by 3 points and sell after counting 3 days, or if you just hold all the way through, which side would you stand on?