Suppose there’s a person named Xiao Mo who works the night shift at an esports venue in a university town. On August 17, $MOVE opened at 0.0063. An older coworker, Shen, who was on shift with him, said to buy and leave it alone—don’t change your mind by staring at the calendar. Xiao Mo made up a different rule for himself: whenever the UTC Wednesday daily candle closes higher than the previous day’s (UTC Tuesday’s) close, he buys 1,000 USDT at Wednesday’s close, then counts forward four more completed daily candles—which lands on Sunday’s close—and sells at that day’s close. If the previous trade hasn’t been sold yet, he skips any new signal.
I tested this rule on completed Binance spot MOVE/USDT daily candles from August 17 to November 14 (UTC, 90 candles in total). The November 15 candle hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included. There were 13 UTC Wednesdays during this period, each with a Tuesday close to compare against: 6 closed higher than Tuesday, 6 lower, and 1 unchanged.
None of the 6 signals occurred while a previous trade was still open, and each scheduled sell day had already closed. So there were 6 completed trades: 3 winners and 3 losers, with no trades handing off on the same day. After cycling 1,000 USDT through 6 trades, the balance ended at 1,377.09, for a compounded return of +37.71% and an average return of +6.58% per trade. The first 3 trades had 2 winners and 1 loser, compounding to +47.13%, with the balance reaching 1,471.32; the last 3 had 1 winner and 2 losers, compounding to -6.40%. The best trade was buying at the August 19 close of 0.0062 and selling at the August 23 close of 0.0084, for +35.48%; the worst was buying at the November 4 close of 0.006158 and selling at the November 8 close of 0.005597, for -9.11%. Excluding the best trade, the remaining 5 trades had 2 winners and 3 losers, compounding to just +1.64%.
If Shen had bought at the August 17 open and held until the November 14 close of 0.004821, 1,000 USDT would have become 765.24, a loss of 23.48%. Over the same period, $BTC was up +1.99% from the August 17 open to the November 14 close.
The turning point was the fourth trade. Xiao Mo bought at the September 30 close of 0.009265. The next day, October 1, the intraday high reached 0.01094 and the close was 0.010171—the highest price and highest close of the entire 90-day period. He wouldn’t sell until October 4; that day’s close was also 0.010171. The balance at the time of the sale was 1,615.19, a gain of +9.78% relative to the purchase price. Based on the September 30 purchase price, the balance had reached 1,737.31 intraday on October 1, an unrealized gain of 18.08%. Shen’s balance could have reached 1,736.51 intraday on October 1 (+73.65%) and still stood at 1,614.44 at the close (+61.44%). From that peak to the November 14 close, it fell 55.93%; it would need to rise another 126.92% to get back there. The two points were 44 days apart.
November 11 was the last UTC Wednesday in this period. It closed at 0.005532, down 0.90% from the November 10 (Tuesday) close of 0.005582, so it didn’t meet the rule and Xiao Mo didn’t buy. November 14 was a Saturday, and both the intraday low of 0.004648 and the close of 0.004821 were the lowest of the 90-day period. The close was down 9.90% from November 13’s close of 0.005351.
Shen held all the way through and is now down a little over 20%. Half of Xiao Mo’s 6 trades were profitable and half lost money; almost all of his net gains came from the first trade, and excluding it leaves just +1.64%. These are historical data from completed candles. They don’t indicate what will happen next and aren’t a recommendation to buy or sell. If MOVE closes higher on a UTC Wednesday than it did on Tuesday, buy and sell on Sunday—or hold all the way through—which side would you take?
I tested this rule on completed Binance spot MOVE/USDT daily candles from August 17 to November 14 (UTC, 90 candles in total). The November 15 candle hadn’t closed yet, so it wasn’t included. There were 13 UTC Wednesdays during this period, each with a Tuesday close to compare against: 6 closed higher than Tuesday, 6 lower, and 1 unchanged.
None of the 6 signals occurred while a previous trade was still open, and each scheduled sell day had already closed. So there were 6 completed trades: 3 winners and 3 losers, with no trades handing off on the same day. After cycling 1,000 USDT through 6 trades, the balance ended at 1,377.09, for a compounded return of +37.71% and an average return of +6.58% per trade. The first 3 trades had 2 winners and 1 loser, compounding to +47.13%, with the balance reaching 1,471.32; the last 3 had 1 winner and 2 losers, compounding to -6.40%. The best trade was buying at the August 19 close of 0.0062 and selling at the August 23 close of 0.0084, for +35.48%; the worst was buying at the November 4 close of 0.006158 and selling at the November 8 close of 0.005597, for -9.11%. Excluding the best trade, the remaining 5 trades had 2 winners and 3 losers, compounding to just +1.64%.
If Shen had bought at the August 17 open and held until the November 14 close of 0.004821, 1,000 USDT would have become 765.24, a loss of 23.48%. Over the same period, $BTC was up +1.99% from the August 17 open to the November 14 close.
The turning point was the fourth trade. Xiao Mo bought at the September 30 close of 0.009265. The next day, October 1, the intraday high reached 0.01094 and the close was 0.010171—the highest price and highest close of the entire 90-day period. He wouldn’t sell until October 4; that day’s close was also 0.010171. The balance at the time of the sale was 1,615.19, a gain of +9.78% relative to the purchase price. Based on the September 30 purchase price, the balance had reached 1,737.31 intraday on October 1, an unrealized gain of 18.08%. Shen’s balance could have reached 1,736.51 intraday on October 1 (+73.65%) and still stood at 1,614.44 at the close (+61.44%). From that peak to the November 14 close, it fell 55.93%; it would need to rise another 126.92% to get back there. The two points were 44 days apart.
November 11 was the last UTC Wednesday in this period. It closed at 0.005532, down 0.90% from the November 10 (Tuesday) close of 0.005582, so it didn’t meet the rule and Xiao Mo didn’t buy. November 14 was a Saturday, and both the intraday low of 0.004648 and the close of 0.004821 were the lowest of the 90-day period. The close was down 9.90% from November 13’s close of 0.005351.
Shen held all the way through and is now down a little over 20%. Half of Xiao Mo’s 6 trades were profitable and half lost money; almost all of his net gains came from the first trade, and excluding it leaves just +1.64%. These are historical data from completed candles. They don’t indicate what will happen next and aren’t a recommendation to buy or sell. If MOVE closes higher on a UTC Wednesday than it did on Tuesday, buy and sell on Sunday—or hold all the way through—which side would you take?