In 7 hours, at 8 a.m. Beijing time today, the weekly close will settle three questions—and one of them is almost answered.
$BTC The current price is around $64,600, down about 13.7% this week from last Sunday’s close of roughly $74,900. To avoid six consecutive weekly losses, it would need to rise about 15.9% in the next 7 hours—almost impossible.
A close below roughly $64,100 would put this week’s loss above 14.4%, surpassing the week at the end of February 2025 to become the worst week since July 2024. The current price is only about $500 above that level.
The 200-week moving average, around $68,000, is now looming overhead: reclaiming it would require a 5.2% rise. Saturday’s wick already pierced it; this morning’s close will determine whether that was just a lower wick or a confirmed close below the average.
That leg down to the weekend low of $62,000 triggered about $2 billion in liquidations across the market over 24 hours, including roughly $750 million in BTC, with nearly 80% of those positions being longs. The price has rebounded only about 4.2% from the low, while the Fear Index is still stuck at 10.
My take: don’t treat this weekend’s rebound as a bottom signal; it’s just a breather after the liquidation wave. The key point is that if the price closes below the 200-week moving average—a level seen as the last line of defense—that line becomes overhead resistance next week. On Friday, the Fed had just listed a “pullback in risk assets” as the second-biggest risk in its Financial Stability Report, and the weekend’s events brought that risk to life. The anchor for this selloff isn’t internal to crypto; it’s macro.
Next, watch three variables: the weekly closing price at 8 a.m. today, whether ETF flows stabilize on Monday, and whether the $60,000 level holds (if it doesn’t, the next reference point is the June low of around $58,500). After that, Nvidia’s earnings after Tuesday’s close will be the next card in this pivotal week.
Do you think the price can hold above $64,100 at this morning’s close? If it closes below the 200-week moving average, will you wait for a rebound next week or stay on the sidelines?
#比特币 #周线收盘 #FederalReserve
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC The current price is around $64,600, down about 13.7% this week from last Sunday’s close of roughly $74,900. To avoid six consecutive weekly losses, it would need to rise about 15.9% in the next 7 hours—almost impossible.
A close below roughly $64,100 would put this week’s loss above 14.4%, surpassing the week at the end of February 2025 to become the worst week since July 2024. The current price is only about $500 above that level.
The 200-week moving average, around $68,000, is now looming overhead: reclaiming it would require a 5.2% rise. Saturday’s wick already pierced it; this morning’s close will determine whether that was just a lower wick or a confirmed close below the average.
That leg down to the weekend low of $62,000 triggered about $2 billion in liquidations across the market over 24 hours, including roughly $750 million in BTC, with nearly 80% of those positions being longs. The price has rebounded only about 4.2% from the low, while the Fear Index is still stuck at 10.
My take: don’t treat this weekend’s rebound as a bottom signal; it’s just a breather after the liquidation wave. The key point is that if the price closes below the 200-week moving average—a level seen as the last line of defense—that line becomes overhead resistance next week. On Friday, the Fed had just listed a “pullback in risk assets” as the second-biggest risk in its Financial Stability Report, and the weekend’s events brought that risk to life. The anchor for this selloff isn’t internal to crypto; it’s macro.
Next, watch three variables: the weekly closing price at 8 a.m. today, whether ETF flows stabilize on Monday, and whether the $60,000 level holds (if it doesn’t, the next reference point is the June low of around $58,500). After that, Nvidia’s earnings after Tuesday’s close will be the next card in this pivotal week.
Do you think the price can hold above $64,100 at this morning’s close? If it closes below the 200-week moving average, will you wait for a rebound next week or stay on the sidelines?
#比特币 #周线收盘 #FederalReserve
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.