Jensen Huang has been gone for three days, and Nvidia has shed $620 billion in a week—but the real question now isn’t whether the earnings numbers look good.
Q3 numbers are in the past. The quarter ended on October 25, and Jensen Huang didn’t leave until November 12. After Tuesday’s close, two things will really be up for judgment: Can interim CEO Kress clearly explain the Q4 guidance, and is there a credible succession plan?
They’re searching both inside and outside the board. Names being floated include CUDA’s Ian Buck, Arm’s Rene Haas, and co-founder Malachowsky—but a name isn’t an answer. The all-hands meeting on the 18th is the next card to play.
First principles: Nvidia has never just sold chips; it sells the credibility of its roadmap. When a company has been carried by one person for 33 years, the “Jensen Huang premium” in its valuation has to be repriced from the day he leaves. The stock closed Friday at 162.85, down 14% for the week. The market has already priced in some of that; the rest depends on Tuesday’s earnings call.
Cautious and leaning bearish; don’t chase a rebound. If Q4 guidance is raised and the succession plan is made clear, I’ll admit I was wrong and turn bullish. If guidance is cut or they’re vague, 162.85 isn’t the bottom.
Are you betting that Tuesday’s earnings call will be clear—or muddled?
Not investment advice.
$NVDA $AMD
#NVDA #英伟达 #Earnings
Q3 numbers are in the past. The quarter ended on October 25, and Jensen Huang didn’t leave until November 12. After Tuesday’s close, two things will really be up for judgment: Can interim CEO Kress clearly explain the Q4 guidance, and is there a credible succession plan?
They’re searching both inside and outside the board. Names being floated include CUDA’s Ian Buck, Arm’s Rene Haas, and co-founder Malachowsky—but a name isn’t an answer. The all-hands meeting on the 18th is the next card to play.
First principles: Nvidia has never just sold chips; it sells the credibility of its roadmap. When a company has been carried by one person for 33 years, the “Jensen Huang premium” in its valuation has to be repriced from the day he leaves. The stock closed Friday at 162.85, down 14% for the week. The market has already priced in some of that; the rest depends on Tuesday’s earnings call.
Cautious and leaning bearish; don’t chase a rebound. If Q4 guidance is raised and the succession plan is made clear, I’ll admit I was wrong and turn bullish. If guidance is cut or they’re vague, 162.85 isn’t the bottom.
Are you betting that Tuesday’s earnings call will be clear—or muddled?
Not investment advice.
$NVDA $AMD
#NVDA #英伟达 #Earnings