FOMC meeting minutes to be released on November 18: BTC should first assess “how wide the divide is,” rather than treating the minutes as a rate hike taking effect
At around 10:24 p.m. Beijing time, Binance Square's trending topics list ranked `#WillFOMCMinutesReinforceRateHikeExpectations?` third, with the page showing 310 people discussing it. This topic has trading value, but the easiest thing to misread is that what will be released on November 18 is the minutes of the October meeting—not a new interest rate decision.
The Federal Reserve's website schedule shows that the minutes of the October 27–28 meeting will be released on November 18. The next FOMC meeting to make an actual interest rate decision will be held on December 8–9. On October 28, the committee voted 10–2 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack arguing for a 25-basis-point rate hike.
So the key question in the minutes is not “Will rates be raised on November 18?” but whether the record reveals a broader inclination toward further tightening. If, beyond the two dissenting votes, more members felt inflation risks called for faster rate hikes, markets could price in a higher rate path for December and beyond. If the discussion instead emphasized waiting for data and noted that financial conditions had already tightened, it could temper expectations of “another hike soon.” Neither scenario can be judged by the headline alone; the wording matters, as does how much the market had already priced in.
For [BTC / USDT spot](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT), official data at around 22:26 Beijing time showed BTC spot at approximately 65,307.44 USDT, down 1.295% over 24 hours, with quote-asset trading volume of about 2.579 billion USDT. [BTC / USDT perpetual](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BTCUSDT) was around 65,264.00 USDT, down 1.393% over 24 hours, with perpetual quote-asset trading volume of about 23.201 billion USDT. The perpetual mark price was around 65,261.25, the latest funding rate was approximately positive 0.000230% per period, and OI was about 95,029 BTC, equivalent to a notional value of roughly $6.2 billion at the latest price.
This structure shows that trading volume in the derivatives market is significantly higher than in spot, but it does not directly mean that “shorts are now in control” or that the minutes’ bearish implications have been fully priced in. The funding rate is near zero, suggesting at least that the market is not currently in an extreme, one-sided funding-rate squeeze. What really needs watching is whether spot volume rises in tandem when the minutes are released, whether the price can reclaim the previous trading range, and whether OI continues to increase as prices fall or contracts along with them.
ETH is also worth watching as a cross-check on risk appetite. [ETH / USDT spot](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT) was around 1,821.63 USDT, down 1.880% over 24 hours, with trading volume of about 1.087 billion USDT. [ETH / USDT perpetual](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/ETHUSDT) was around 1,819.75 USDT, down 2.006% over 24 hours, with perpetual quote-asset trading volume of about 15.773 billion USDT. The ETH perpetual funding rate was approximately negative 0.005254% per period, and OI was about 2.317 million ETH. If BTC stabilizes after the minutes while ETH continues to underperform, it would look more like an initial pullback in higher-beta risk than a broad reversal in risk appetite.
My view is that, before the minutes are released, BTC is better approached as a conditional trade around an event shock rather than treating an unpublished document as a certain negative catalyst. A bearish scenario would be one in which the minutes show support for rate hikes extending beyond the 10-to-2 split, while BTC spot breaks below this session’s low with OI increasing. A bullish, or at least stabilizing, scenario would be one in which the minutes do not show a broader consensus for tightening, and BTC spot reclaims a key range on rising volume while the perpetual premium and funding rate remain subdued. Drawing conclusions from just the first rapid price-movement candle makes it easiest to confuse a news reaction with a trend reversal.
Sources and verification:
1. Federal Reserve monetary policy calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm
2. Federal Reserve October 28 FOMC statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
3. Binance Square trending list (observed at around 22:24 Beijing time): https://www.binance.com/en/square/trends
4. Binance public spot/perpetual market data endpoints; data timestamp approximately 22:26 Beijing time.
Risk disclosure: The FOMC minutes have not yet been released. Discussion of their wording and potential market reactions in this article is conditional analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Spot volume, perpetual volume, funding rates, and OI are different metrics and cannot be used interchangeably. The chart cover is from a local BTCUSDT 4-hour chart and is for trend observation only.
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