And honestly, after watching this market over the past few weeks, that doesn’t sound surprising at all.
This recent crypto move has been brutal. A lot of people who were confidently buying higher are now underwater, and fear is starting to take over the market.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, after removing BTC that hasn’t moved for more than 10 years, the percentage of active Bitcoin supply currently in profit has dropped below 45%.
What does that actually mean?
Simply put, more than half of the Bitcoin that is actively moving around the market was last bought at a higher price than where BTC is trading now.
That shows a clear contraction in profits. People who were sitting comfortably in profit not long ago are now watching their positions turn red. Confidence is fading, and the pressure to sell is getting stronger.
But here’s the interesting part.
Historically, when this indicator drops below 40%, it has often appeared during periods when Bitcoin was getting closer to a market bottom.
Closer to the bottom doesn’t mean an instant reversal. It also doesn’t mean we should blindly call the bottom and throw everything into the market right now.
The real thing I’m watching is simple: how much more selling pressure is left?
A real bottom usually doesn’t form when everyone is excited because prices look cheap. It forms when the people who were once extremely bullish start questioning their entire position.
And I think we are seeing some of that right now.
I’ve said before that Bitcoin could fall toward $72,000. Now we’re already around $65,000, and the market still doesn’t look completely comfortable.
A lot of bulls are probably questioning themselves right now. Many people who were buying every dip a few weeks ago are suddenly too scared to buy another one.
And maybe that is exactly what makes this area interesting.
I’m not saying $65,000 is the final bottom. Bitcoin could still go lower. But compared with where we were, this is starting to look like an area where long-term opportunities become more attractive.
Sometimes the best dip buys don’t feel exciting.
You buy them when the market looks terrible, when confidence is gone, and when everyone is asking the same question:
How much lower can Bitcoin go?
What do you think, guys — are we getting close to the bottom, or is there still another big move down coming?
