On October 19, Filecoin rolled out the Solstice upgrade, bringing six years of linear vesting to an end and cutting estimated new supply by about 75%. In theory, that’s a supply shock, so the price should rise.
Instead, on Binance spot, FIL opened at 1.042 on the day of the upgrade and is now at 0.6223, down 40%. It hit an intraday low of 0.5863 today, after being above 1.15 just a month ago. Yesterday, it plunged from 0.71 to 0.62 in a single day, with $15.1 million in trading volume—roughly three to four times the usual amount.
I think the problem isn’t selling pressure—it’s buying demand. On-chain storage capacity fell from 1,855 PiB in May to 1,139 PiB on November 13, a 38.6% drop in six months. Supply was cut, but the customers actually paying to store data haven’t kept up, so miners still have to sell their coins.
Around this time last year, FIL was still at 2.03. Now it’s down nearly 70%. Cutting production can save the token price—if anyone actually needs to use it.
Do you think Solstice shifting rewards toward paying customers can boost demand? Or has nobody got a story to tell about the storage sector anymore?