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Hawk自由哥
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There are no signs that this round of adjustments is over. The market is experiencing a clear outflow of capital. BTC has fallen back toward $63,000, ETH is also back near $1,700, and SOL has dropped below $70. This looks more like a “test of support during a downtrend” than a confirmed one-way bottom. The key is not to guess where the bottom is, but to watch whether BTC can stabilize first and whether genuine spot buying steps in during declines. Before the broader market stabilizes, high-beta assets like ETH and SOL are less meaningful to assess on their own and are mostly being dragged down by BTC.
Here are a few types of signals worth watching:
1. BTC’s key levels and price action: Around the current $63,000 level, watch for a quick recovery after a high-volume breakdown, whether the daily chart stops making new lows, and whether BTC can reclaim its previous low or short-term moving averages. A low-volume bounce alone does not count as stabilization.
2. Quality of buying support: Check whether spot trading volume is increasing, net BTC inflows to exchanges are slowing, stablecoin premiums or USDT premiums/discounts are changing, and ETF outflows are narrowing. Futures open interest and funding rates can provide supporting information, but they do not represent spot buying support.
3. ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC: If the broader market stabilizes but ETH and SOL continue to underperform BTC, risk appetite has not returned, and any rebound is more likely to be a recovery than a reversal.
4. Market structure: During a decline, a “high-volume long lower wick followed by no new low” is more meaningful than simply seeing small daily drops. If rebounds come on low volume while declines come on high volume, capital is still flowing out.
My current personal view is that making a one-way prediction about whether prices will rise or fall may not be appropriate right now. Whether BTC can stabilize is key. For those accumulating spot assets, buying in several batches and adding on dips each day can be a good way to lower the average holding cost.
This is only a framework for observing the market and does not constitute investment advice. #加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？ #比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45%
Here are a few types of signals worth watching:
1. BTC’s key levels and price action: Around the current $63,000 level, watch for a quick recovery after a high-volume breakdown, whether the daily chart stops making new lows, and whether BTC can reclaim its previous low or short-term moving averages. A low-volume bounce alone does not count as stabilization.
2. Quality of buying support: Check whether spot trading volume is increasing, net BTC inflows to exchanges are slowing, stablecoin premiums or USDT premiums/discounts are changing, and ETF outflows are narrowing. Futures open interest and funding rates can provide supporting information, but they do not represent spot buying support.
3. ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC: If the broader market stabilizes but ETH and SOL continue to underperform BTC, risk appetite has not returned, and any rebound is more likely to be a recovery than a reversal.
4. Market structure: During a decline, a “high-volume long lower wick followed by no new low” is more meaningful than simply seeing small daily drops. If rebounds come on low volume while declines come on high volume, capital is still flowing out.
My current personal view is that making a one-way prediction about whether prices will rise or fall may not be appropriate right now. Whether BTC can stabilize is key. For those accumulating spot assets, buying in several batches and adding on dips each day can be a good way to lower the average holding cost.
This is only a framework for observing the market and does not constitute investment advice. #加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？ #比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45%
