In a market like this, anyone brave enough to open their account is a warrior.$BTC Bitcoin briefly plunged to around $62,000, while Ethereum sank to $1,731. In 24 hours, 330,000 people were liquidated, wiping out $2.1 billion. Inflation data reignited expectations of Fed rate hikes, Treasury yields broke above 5%, and hot money fled. Newbies rushing in now are like people trying to catch a falling knife with their bare hands.$ZEC
So when will prices finally go up? There are two ways to look at it.
In the short term, watch for signals—don't try to call the bottom. Bitcoin hasn't even reclaimed $70,000 or $80,000 yet. Market maker Wintermute put it bluntly: if it can't get above $80,000, don't talk about a trend reversal. Matt Mena of 21Shares also laid out the path: first reclaim $70,000, then look to $74,000. Historically, the average return in the fourth quarter has topped 61%, so a rebound to $87,000 or even $90,000 is possible. For Ethereum, the short term comes down to two things: whether ETF inflows led by BlackRock's ETHA can continue, and whether the price can hold above the $2,000 mark. Until those signals appear, rushing to buy the dip just means providing liquidity to the market.
A meaningful rally is most likely still a few years away, probably not until 2027. This isn’t meant to pour cold water on things—several cycle models point in the same direction. Blockworks Research believes the bear-market low could arrive around late November 2026, while Fidelity’s historical four-year cycle analysis points to a similar bottoming window. But a bottoming range doesn’t mean prices will take off right away; several models put the start of a true bull market in mid-2027. Standard Chartered’s 2027 target is $225,000, while Fidelity’s long-term model points to $200,000. Both bets hinge on ETF inflows coinciding with a rate-cut cycle. Ethereum’s long-term story is what Tom Lee calls a “tokenization supercycle”: traditional assets are moving on-chain, and most of that activity is expected to run on the Ethereum network. Citi has gone against the grain and raised its price target to $3,028—but that doesn’t mean you’ll see it tomorrow.
A frank word for new crypto investors: In a bear market, cash is the most valuable thing, and patience comes second. Don’t obsess over buying at the absolute bottom. Wait for Bitcoin to reclaim $80,000, for ETF funds to flow back in consistently, and for the Fed to turn more dovish. It’s a hundred times better to act once the signals appear one by one than to charge in blind right now. You have to stay in the game to have a shot at the next cycle.$BNB #加密市场大幅回调，多名巨鲸遭遇清算 #比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45% 