$2.024 billion, 318,000 traders, 100%: Rate-hike expectations wiped out $2 billion in leveraged positions today. The November 18 minutes are the next blow.
#Rate-hike expectations remain strong. Will the FOMC minutes add another hawkish signal?
Over the past 24 hours, $2.024 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market (CoinGlass, data as of noon today), affecting 318,000 traders. Long positions accounted for $1.753 billion, or 86.7%. $774 million in BTC longs and $488 million in Ethereum longs were liquidated. The most alarming part was the pace: $923 million was liquidated in just the final four hours this morning. The more prices fell, the more positions were liquidated—and the more positions were liquidated, the further prices fell.
Where did the money go? The chain of events is clear: CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability of a rate hike at the December 9 meeting, with an 88.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and an 11.5% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The market is no longer wondering whether rates will rise, but by how much. Money moves first: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with $185 million flowing out in a single day on November 13. On Coinbase, between November 9 and 14, aggressive selling exceeded buying by 8,900 BTC. Spot-market liquidity dried up, prices fell below key levels, and leveraged longs began to be liquidated in a cascade.
Tonight, there are three things to check on your leveraged positions. First, check your liquidation price. Glassnode’s six-month liquidation heatmap shows the largest concentration of long liquidations between $59,500 and $62,600. Bitcoin is currently at $65,342 (Binance spot, snapshot taken before 18:00 Beijing time), just over 4% above $62,600. A break below that level could trigger another wave of liquidations. Second, check the calendar: the Fed minutes on November 18 and the rate decision on December 9. Don’t add leverage before the minutes are released—until the outlook is clear, adding leverage is like putting your fate in the hands of the minutes. Third, check new projects. Scams and vulnerabilities tend to emerge on steep-down days, too: Kava Lend was drained of $3.76 million on November 14, Pool Party was hacked for $215,000 on November 13, and a forged receipt siphoned about $304,000 through Ankr’s cross-chain bridge on November 9. In today’s scan, I also flagged a project called Wenwu: a generic-template token with no supply cap, rated HIGH risk, level 4, in its audit. The harder the market falls, the more careful you should be about clicking on new projects.
My view: Rate-hike expectations are the underlying driver of this downturn. ETF redemptions, selling pressure on Coinbase, and cascading liquidations are all working together; looking at any one of them in isolation could make you think the bottom is in. What would change my view? A dovish tone in the November 18 minutes, or a drop in the probability of a December rate hike from 100%. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $62,600 liquidation cluster or the minutes add another hawkish signal, leveraged positions will need to be cut further.
Do you think the November 18 minutes will be hawkish or dovish?
—Bao Bao
#Rate-hike expectations remain strong. Will the FOMC minutes add another hawkish signal?
Over the past 24 hours, $2.024 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market (CoinGlass, data as of noon today), affecting 318,000 traders. Long positions accounted for $1.753 billion, or 86.7%. $774 million in BTC longs and $488 million in Ethereum longs were liquidated. The most alarming part was the pace: $923 million was liquidated in just the final four hours this morning. The more prices fell, the more positions were liquidated—and the more positions were liquidated, the further prices fell.
Where did the money go? The chain of events is clear: CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability of a rate hike at the December 9 meeting, with an 88.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and an 11.5% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The market is no longer wondering whether rates will rise, but by how much. Money moves first: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, with $185 million flowing out in a single day on November 13. On Coinbase, between November 9 and 14, aggressive selling exceeded buying by 8,900 BTC. Spot-market liquidity dried up, prices fell below key levels, and leveraged longs began to be liquidated in a cascade.
Tonight, there are three things to check on your leveraged positions. First, check your liquidation price. Glassnode’s six-month liquidation heatmap shows the largest concentration of long liquidations between $59,500 and $62,600. Bitcoin is currently at $65,342 (Binance spot, snapshot taken before 18:00 Beijing time), just over 4% above $62,600. A break below that level could trigger another wave of liquidations. Second, check the calendar: the Fed minutes on November 18 and the rate decision on December 9. Don’t add leverage before the minutes are released—until the outlook is clear, adding leverage is like putting your fate in the hands of the minutes. Third, check new projects. Scams and vulnerabilities tend to emerge on steep-down days, too: Kava Lend was drained of $3.76 million on November 14, Pool Party was hacked for $215,000 on November 13, and a forged receipt siphoned about $304,000 through Ankr’s cross-chain bridge on November 9. In today’s scan, I also flagged a project called Wenwu: a generic-template token with no supply cap, rated HIGH risk, level 4, in its audit. The harder the market falls, the more careful you should be about clicking on new projects.
My view: Rate-hike expectations are the underlying driver of this downturn. ETF redemptions, selling pressure on Coinbase, and cascading liquidations are all working together; looking at any one of them in isolation could make you think the bottom is in. What would change my view? A dovish tone in the November 18 minutes, or a drop in the probability of a December rate hike from 100%. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $62,600 liquidation cluster or the minutes add another hawkish signal, leveraged positions will need to be cut further.
Do you think the November 18 minutes will be hawkish or dovish?
—Bao Bao
