GOOD MORNING GUYS! 🌅
First of all, congratulations! Yesterday our $EVAA configuration worked well. TP1 hit and price came close to TP2. Yes, EVAA pumped again today, but our target was already achieved. Hope you guys booked some solid profit!
Now honestly, $BTC 's move shocked me. Price dropped towards $61K and bounced back near $65K. Almost $10K lost in a week! But WHY did this happen, and what comes next?
Guys, several things are connecting. Trump's midterm setbacks have added political uncertainty. AI and tech stocks are under pressure, with growing concerns about massive AI spending, valuations and Nvidia-related controversy. Investors are questioning whether the AI boom can justify the capital being poured into it.
Then comes the Iran war, oil uncertainty and inflation pressure. The latest US October CPI was hotter than expected: headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% forecast, while core CPI increased 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. This is a big problem for the Fed.
Markets are now strongly pricing a December rate hike. A 25 bps hike is the clear favourite, with roughly 88%–89% probability in recent pricing, while a 50 bps hike carries around 11%–12% probability. Fed Governor Waller has even said 50 bps should be considered if core inflation stays hot. Higher rates and rising Treasury yields are a serious headwind for risk assets.
But what actually accelerated $BTC 's crash? LONG Liquidations. Around $2B in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, mostly longs. Once support broke, forced selling created a chain reaction. No single new surprise headline has been confirmed as the direct trigger.
Next week watch Nvidia earnings, US retail sales, FOMC minutes and Fed commentary. These could bring another wave of volatility.
👉 My view: $65K bounce is encouraging, but don't call it a confirmed bottom. Watch spot demand, ETF flows, OI and yields. Macro pressure created the setup; leverage made the crash brutal. Stay patient, guys!
First of all, congratulations! Yesterday our $EVAA configuration worked well. TP1 hit and price came close to TP2. Yes, EVAA pumped again today, but our target was already achieved. Hope you guys booked some solid profit!
Now honestly, $BTC 's move shocked me. Price dropped towards $61K and bounced back near $65K. Almost $10K lost in a week! But WHY did this happen, and what comes next?
Guys, several things are connecting. Trump's midterm setbacks have added political uncertainty. AI and tech stocks are under pressure, with growing concerns about massive AI spending, valuations and Nvidia-related controversy. Investors are questioning whether the AI boom can justify the capital being poured into it.
Then comes the Iran war, oil uncertainty and inflation pressure. The latest US October CPI was hotter than expected: headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% forecast, while core CPI increased 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. This is a big problem for the Fed.
Markets are now strongly pricing a December rate hike. A 25 bps hike is the clear favourite, with roughly 88%–89% probability in recent pricing, while a 50 bps hike carries around 11%–12% probability. Fed Governor Waller has even said 50 bps should be considered if core inflation stays hot. Higher rates and rising Treasury yields are a serious headwind for risk assets.
But what actually accelerated $BTC 's crash? LONG Liquidations. Around $2B in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, mostly longs. Once support broke, forced selling created a chain reaction. No single new surprise headline has been confirmed as the direct trigger.
Next week watch Nvidia earnings, US retail sales, FOMC minutes and Fed commentary. These could bring another wave of volatility.
👉 My view: $65K bounce is encouraging, but don't call it a confirmed bottom. Watch spot demand, ETF flows, OI and yields. Macro pressure created the setup; leverage made the crash brutal. Stay patient, guys!
