The most important figure in the $PUMP decline isn’t 18%, but the 1.458 billion tokens transferred to Coinbase Prime on November 14. A transfer to a custody platform doesn’t mean an immediate sale, but it does mean whoever owns this amount is preparing to make a move, rather than leaving it in a cold wallet.

This comes on top of 6.77 billion tokens unlocking in November, worth $27.67 million, or 1.47% of the circulating supply. Supply is increasing, and large sellers are getting in position.

The price is 0.00284, and buyers are trying to defend support at 0.00280–0.00290. Resistance is at 0.00320, then 0.00350.

The futures data is worth paying attention to: open interest exceeds $298 million alongside a negative funding rate, meaning short sellers are in control in the short term. But pressure on short positions doesn’t offset new supply entering the market.

I don’t think 0.00280 will hold. A bounce below 0.00320 remains an opportunity for sellers, not buyers. A close above 0.00350 alongside declining open interest is what would make me reconsider.

This is analysis, not financial advice.

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