The chief has something to say
I came across this update on gold: International gold prices have fallen for three straight days. COMEX gold futures closed at around $3,878/oz on November 12, down about 5.5% overall and at their lowest level since early October 2025. Higher-than-expected inflation has boosted rate-hike expectations, while a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold. US stocks, BTC, and ETH have also pulled back over the same period, with overall risk appetite weakening. XAU -0.15%, XAUT -0.25%.
My take: The community has identified the right cause—the main driver of the sell-off is a repricing of rate-hike expectations, not the disappearance of safe-haven demand. Gold earns no yield, so rising interest rates directly increase its opportunity cost. With both the dollar and Treasury yields high, non-yielding assets like gold and BTC are under pressure together. Technically, the current rebound is just a recovery after a sharp drop; the bearish structure across both shorter and longer timeframes remains intact, and the trend has not reversed. There’s a useful comparison for crypto: even gold’s safe-haven status is being tested by high interest rates, which suggests this move is driven by macro discount-rate pressures, not by issues with any single asset’s fundamentals. BTC will likewise need to wait for Treasury yields to turn lower before it can recover.
BTC is currently around 69,000, and I’m staying out of the market. My plan: I won’t enter unless 68,000 holds; if it breaks, I’ll keep waiting. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so I won’t buy the dip or chase a rebound. I’ll wait for signals on liquidity and US Treasury yields next week.
This analysis is time-sensitive. Please stay safe. $PAXG $NVDAB $BTC
I came across this update on gold: International gold prices have fallen for three straight days. COMEX gold futures closed at around $3,878/oz on November 12, down about 5.5% overall and at their lowest level since early October 2025. Higher-than-expected inflation has boosted rate-hike expectations, while a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold. US stocks, BTC, and ETH have also pulled back over the same period, with overall risk appetite weakening. XAU -0.15%, XAUT -0.25%.
My take: The community has identified the right cause—the main driver of the sell-off is a repricing of rate-hike expectations, not the disappearance of safe-haven demand. Gold earns no yield, so rising interest rates directly increase its opportunity cost. With both the dollar and Treasury yields high, non-yielding assets like gold and BTC are under pressure together. Technically, the current rebound is just a recovery after a sharp drop; the bearish structure across both shorter and longer timeframes remains intact, and the trend has not reversed. There’s a useful comparison for crypto: even gold’s safe-haven status is being tested by high interest rates, which suggests this move is driven by macro discount-rate pressures, not by issues with any single asset’s fundamentals. BTC will likewise need to wait for Treasury yields to turn lower before it can recover.
BTC is currently around 69,000, and I’m staying out of the market. My plan: I won’t enter unless 68,000 holds; if it breaks, I’ll keep waiting. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so I won’t buy the dip or chase a rebound. I’ll wait for signals on liquidity and US Treasury yields next week.
This analysis is time-sensitive. Please stay safe. $PAXG $NVDAB $BTC