【The probability of a drop to $55,000 has risen to 35%; the market is already pricing in a deeper bear market】
On November 5, the predicted probability of $BTC falling to $55,000 was only 7%. In just ten days, it has climbed to 35%. The probability of a drop to $60,000 is even higher, at 61%, while the chance of a rebound to $90,000 is only 7%. Market expectations are rapidly turning bearish: traders are starting to seriously bet that Bitcoin’s decline may not be over yet.
BTC briefly fell to $62,112 on Sunday, its lowest level in four months, and was down about 17% over the past week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.91 billion. The Fear Index also fell to 10, remaining in extreme fear territory for three straight days. Price, institutional flows, and market sentiment are reinforcing one another. A series of pressures and events has gradually driven sentiment to this point.
However, the 35% figure in prediction markets is a price shaped by participants’ bets, not the actual statistical probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000. There is a potential concentration of liquidations near $60,000; if that level breaks, leveraged position closures could further amplify the decline. My view is that a defensive stance is still warranted in the short term, but fear is already intense. Next, the key question is whether genuine buying emerges near $60,000, rather than focusing solely on prediction-market figures.
On November 5, the predicted probability of $BTC falling to $55,000 was only 7%. In just ten days, it has climbed to 35%. The probability of a drop to $60,000 is even higher, at 61%, while the chance of a rebound to $90,000 is only 7%. Market expectations are rapidly turning bearish: traders are starting to seriously bet that Bitcoin’s decline may not be over yet.
BTC briefly fell to $62,112 on Sunday, its lowest level in four months, and was down about 17% over the past week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.91 billion. The Fear Index also fell to 10, remaining in extreme fear territory for three straight days. Price, institutional flows, and market sentiment are reinforcing one another. A series of pressures and events has gradually driven sentiment to this point.
However, the 35% figure in prediction markets is a price shaped by participants’ bets, not the actual statistical probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000. There is a potential concentration of liquidations near $60,000; if that level breaks, leveraged position closures could further amplify the decline. My view is that a defensive stance is still warranted in the short term, but fear is already intense. Next, the key question is whether genuine buying emerges near $60,000, rather than focusing solely on prediction-market figures.