#加息预期仍强，FOMC纪要会否再添鹰派信号？ Conclusion: The minutes are unlikely to be much more hawkish, but they are also unlikely to turn dovish—the expectations are already fully priced in.
CME FedWatch showed that on November 10, the market put the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 9 meeting at 95.6%, up 18.2 percentage points from a week earlier. On the night October CPI was released, the probability of a 50-basis-point hike briefly jumped from near zero to 15.3%. Expectations have already been fully priced in, so a hawkish surprise in the minutes would have limited marginal impact.
Three factors have pushed up expectations: October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%, marking a third consecutive month above expectations; Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core CPI rises by 0.3% or more month over month; and the data came in exactly at 0.3%.
But the minutes may also offer some cushioning: At the October meeting, rates were held steady by a 10–2 vote, with the two dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike rather than 50 basis points. The committee is not unanimous—Barkin said December has “no base case,” Paulson supports gradual rate hikes, and Chair Warsh declined to provide forward guidance.
The key question is not whether the minutes are “hawkish,” but how the divisions are structured: If they show that most participants favored consecutive rate hikes, a 50-basis-point move will enter formal discussion; if they only emphasize “data dependence,” the market will interpret that as a cushion.
The next variables: Three more data releases are due before the meeting—employment, PCE, and retail sales. $ETH $XRP #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？
CME FedWatch showed that on November 10, the market put the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 9 meeting at 95.6%, up 18.2 percentage points from a week earlier. On the night October CPI was released, the probability of a 50-basis-point hike briefly jumped from near zero to 15.3%. Expectations have already been fully priced in, so a hawkish surprise in the minutes would have limited marginal impact.
Three factors have pushed up expectations: October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI rose 0.3%, marking a third consecutive month above expectations; Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core CPI rises by 0.3% or more month over month; and the data came in exactly at 0.3%.
But the minutes may also offer some cushioning: At the October meeting, rates were held steady by a 10–2 vote, with the two dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike rather than 50 basis points. The committee is not unanimous—Barkin said December has “no base case,” Paulson supports gradual rate hikes, and Chair Warsh declined to provide forward guidance.
The key question is not whether the minutes are “hawkish,” but how the divisions are structured: If they show that most participants favored consecutive rate hikes, a 50-basis-point move will enter formal discussion; if they only emphasize “data dependence,” the market will interpret that as a cushion.
The next variables: Three more data releases are due before the meeting—employment, PCE, and retail sales. $ETH $XRP #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？
