BTC fell back below $64,000 this afternoon, giving back most of its midday rebound
As of 15:45 SGT, BTC was trading around $63,900, down about 4.7% over 24 hours. After touching $65,600 around midday, it steadily retreated and is now not far from this morning’s low of $62,000. ETH was weaker, trading near $1,780, down about 6% on the day.
At midday, I said this rebound looked more like a relief bounce, and the price action is now bearing that out. More noteworthy than the price is the emergence of two sources of selling pressure over the weekend. The first is miners: MARA reportedly sold about 13,600 BTC at an average price of around $81,000, raising about $1.1 billion, in the six weeks after the end of the third quarter. Most of the proceeds went toward debt repayment, and the company plans to keep selling coins to invest in AI data centers and buy back shares. The largest publicly listed miner has shifted from accumulating coins to selling them, while prices are already hovering near miners’ shutdown price. Whether other miners follow suit should become clear when mining stocks open on Monday.
The second is the liquidity drain from IPOs. Anthropic is going public next week, and the market is starting to compare it with SpaceX’s IPO in June: BTC fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX went public, versus 18% over the same window this time. In that instance, BTC bottomed on the 18th day after the IPO and then gradually recovered. This comparison is based on just one example, so I’m using it only as a rough timeline. If it holds, selling pressure is unlikely to ease before Anthropic’s IPO pricing is finalized. If ETFs continue to see large outflows on Monday, that would suggest the selling is coming from elsewhere, invalidating the comparison. Some on-chain buyers are also going against the trend: a large wallet bought about 63,500 ETH at an average price of around $1,970 during the decline, worth roughly $125 million. But one address can’t hold up the entire market.
Another factor that’s easy to overlook is the Middle East. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh and drones over the Eastern Province. Combined with the earlier reports of an oil tanker striking a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could start pricing in supply risks again on Monday. Rising oil prices would make inflation expectations and Treasury yields harder to bring down, adding further pressure to risk assets that are already under strain.
My view remains unchanged: this is still a relief bounce within a continuing downtrend, not a bottom. If $62,000 breaks again, the next level to watch is $57,800. I’ll reconsider only if BTC recovers $65,600 and open interest and the long-short ratio actually come down. ETF flows after the U.S. market opens on Monday, the reaction in MARA and mining stocks, and Nvidia’s earnings early Wednesday morning are the three key events to watch over the next three days.
This is not investment advice.
As of 15:45 SGT, BTC was trading around $63,900, down about 4.7% over 24 hours. After touching $65,600 around midday, it steadily retreated and is now not far from this morning’s low of $62,000. ETH was weaker, trading near $1,780, down about 6% on the day.
At midday, I said this rebound looked more like a relief bounce, and the price action is now bearing that out. More noteworthy than the price is the emergence of two sources of selling pressure over the weekend. The first is miners: MARA reportedly sold about 13,600 BTC at an average price of around $81,000, raising about $1.1 billion, in the six weeks after the end of the third quarter. Most of the proceeds went toward debt repayment, and the company plans to keep selling coins to invest in AI data centers and buy back shares. The largest publicly listed miner has shifted from accumulating coins to selling them, while prices are already hovering near miners’ shutdown price. Whether other miners follow suit should become clear when mining stocks open on Monday.
The second is the liquidity drain from IPOs. Anthropic is going public next week, and the market is starting to compare it with SpaceX’s IPO in June: BTC fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX went public, versus 18% over the same window this time. In that instance, BTC bottomed on the 18th day after the IPO and then gradually recovered. This comparison is based on just one example, so I’m using it only as a rough timeline. If it holds, selling pressure is unlikely to ease before Anthropic’s IPO pricing is finalized. If ETFs continue to see large outflows on Monday, that would suggest the selling is coming from elsewhere, invalidating the comparison. Some on-chain buyers are also going against the trend: a large wallet bought about 63,500 ETH at an average price of around $1,970 during the decline, worth roughly $125 million. But one address can’t hold up the entire market.
Another factor that’s easy to overlook is the Middle East. The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted missiles aimed at Riyadh and drones over the Eastern Province. Combined with the earlier reports of an oil tanker striking a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could start pricing in supply risks again on Monday. Rising oil prices would make inflation expectations and Treasury yields harder to bring down, adding further pressure to risk assets that are already under strain.
My view remains unchanged: this is still a relief bounce within a continuing downtrend, not a bottom. If $62,000 breaks again, the next level to watch is $57,800. I’ll reconsider only if BTC recovers $65,600 and open interest and the long-short ratio actually come down. ETF flows after the U.S. market opens on Monday, the reaction in MARA and mining stocks, and Nvidia’s earnings early Wednesday morning are the three key events to watch over the next three days.
This is not investment advice.