Bitcoin plunged to $62,006 in the early hours today, its lowest level since July 13. That’s just $181 above the July 13 low of $61,825, and only 3.3% away from the $60,000 round-number mark. It then rebounded to $64,558, up 4.1% from the low, with an intraday range of 8.9%. At one point in the early hours, it climbed back above $65,000, triggering the liquidation of $121 million in short positions within an hour. Short covering added fuel to the rally—short covering is when traders who bet on a price drop are forced to buy back the asset to close their positions, and those purchases push the price up. But the rally couldn’t get past $65,000, and the price slid back down.
Technicals are already at an extreme. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is just 19.8. A reading below 30 signals oversold conditions, and a drop below 20 is the first in nearly 90 days, suggesting short-term selling has gone too far. The price has closed below the 200-day moving average for three consecutive days. Technical traders consider the 200-day average the dividing line between bull and bear markets; it currently stands at $72,802, 11.3% above the price. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages, at $75,283 and $80,136, are both overhead. The price is below all three moving averages, and the short-term averages are turning down. The MACD histogram is at -1,102, widening further from -897 the previous day. MACD is a momentum indicator that tracks the difference between faster and slower moving averages. When its histogram grows further below the zero line, it indicates that downward momentum is still strengthening. MACD has now remained below the zero line for 41 consecutive days.
Trading volume tells a similar story. The large bearish candle on November 13 saw 29,649 bitcoins traded, 2.1 times the 30-day average, as panic selling drove a concentrated wave of exits. Volume fell over the weekend; fewer people were selling, but buyers hadn’t returned either.
Keep an eye on three levels: to the upside, $65,000—only if the price holds above it can a rebound toward today’s opening price of $67,381 and the November 13 closing price of $68,314 be considered. To the downside, watch today’s low of $62,006. A break below that would put the $60,000 round-number mark in focus, followed by the 2026 low of $57,742. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is around 88%, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen $2.35 billion in outflows over the past two weeks. Both macro conditions and fund flows are favoring the bears.
Oversold conditions can lead to a rebound, but oversold doesn’t mean bottom. Without rising volume, treat any rebound as a dead-cat bounce—a brief recovery after a sharp drop, followed by another decline. For a genuine trend reversal, wait for a strong-volume bullish candle to close back above $65,000, or for heavy-volume signs of a bottom near $60,000.
#比特币 #Technical Analysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Technicals are already at an extreme. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is just 19.8. A reading below 30 signals oversold conditions, and a drop below 20 is the first in nearly 90 days, suggesting short-term selling has gone too far. The price has closed below the 200-day moving average for three consecutive days. Technical traders consider the 200-day average the dividing line between bull and bear markets; it currently stands at $72,802, 11.3% above the price. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages, at $75,283 and $80,136, are both overhead. The price is below all three moving averages, and the short-term averages are turning down. The MACD histogram is at -1,102, widening further from -897 the previous day. MACD is a momentum indicator that tracks the difference between faster and slower moving averages. When its histogram grows further below the zero line, it indicates that downward momentum is still strengthening. MACD has now remained below the zero line for 41 consecutive days.
Trading volume tells a similar story. The large bearish candle on November 13 saw 29,649 bitcoins traded, 2.1 times the 30-day average, as panic selling drove a concentrated wave of exits. Volume fell over the weekend; fewer people were selling, but buyers hadn’t returned either.
Keep an eye on three levels: to the upside, $65,000—only if the price holds above it can a rebound toward today’s opening price of $67,381 and the November 13 closing price of $68,314 be considered. To the downside, watch today’s low of $62,006. A break below that would put the $60,000 round-number mark in focus, followed by the 2026 low of $57,742. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is around 88%, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen $2.35 billion in outflows over the past two weeks. Both macro conditions and fund flows are favoring the bears.
Oversold conditions can lead to a rebound, but oversold doesn’t mean bottom. Without rising volume, treat any rebound as a dead-cat bounce—a brief recovery after a sharp drop, followed by another decline. For a genuine trend reversal, wait for a strong-volume bullish candle to close back above $65,000, or for heavy-volume signs of a bottom near $60,000.
#比特币 #Technical Analysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL
