Opportunity screening | Afternoon session (Sunday)
No new positions.
BTC spot is around 64,530 and perpetuals around 64,590 (morning: around 64,180 / 64,165). The bearish confirmation discussed this morning has played out and hit its target: at 08:00, the 4-hour candle cleanly broke below the morning low of around 63,320 / 63,271. Spot reached a low of around 62,006 and perpetuals around 61,956, piercing the July–August water-bottom zone around 62,275–62,535. Then came a high-volume V-shaped rebound: within the 10:00 hour, price rallied from the low. The 08:00 4-hour candle reached a high of around 65,596 / 65,565 and closed around 64,826 / 64,798 (long lower wick; the 4-hour candle has closed). The current 12:00 4-hour candle has not yet closed. Several attempts to test around 65,000 (hourly highs around 65,596, 65,169, and 65,032) have failed to hold. Price is now around 64,530, still consolidating below 65,000 and slightly below the previous consolidation zone around 64,630 / 64,588.
The middle-to-late phase has played out; don't chase shorts (the water-bottom target was hit and price has recovered). The water-bottom may have been tested, but the Wood element has not yet emerged—the near-term confirmation for Wood requires reclaiming and holding around 65,000. Don't try to catch a falling knife midway through a rebound.
Watch levels (revised from this morning; not entry signals at current prices): Bullish confirmation (Wood) = reclaim and hold around 65,000, then watch 66,456 / 67,568; renewed bearish confirmation (failed rebound) = fail to hold and reclaim around 65,000, then cleanly break below today's low of around 62,006 / 61,956 and continue lower. First watch the July low around 61,825 / 61,307, then the June 8 weekly low around 60,755 and 60k; further down, the June water-bottom zone around 59,131–57,800. The original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold of 78,210, then watch 80k.
The main tension is unchanged: tightening liquidity and December rate hikes being priced in almost fully, alongside consecutive outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs; leveraged long liquidations are an amplifying factor. The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary and long-term. The account long ratio remains relatively high, and funding rates are slightly positive; neither alone supports a crowded short-covering thesis.
ETH around 1,801 (morning: around 1,771; low: around 1,711) and SOL around 70.8 (morning: around 70.2; low: around 67.4) remain relatively weak versus BTC (24h: around −4.0%; ETH: around −5.5%, SOL: around −6.8%). Both have also staged V-shaped rebounds after piercing their water-bottoms, but have yet to hold above their respective nearby resistance levels. No clear hedge levels; don't chase. INJ remains weak; don't chase. ARB (unlock around 11/15): don't chase.
U.S. and Hong Kong cash equities markets are closed for the weekend; index futures are expected to reopen around early Monday morning (Singapore time).
Discipline: Keep each position's exposure within tolerable limits (参考 ≤5%); take profits promptly at planned levels. This is opportunity scanning and risk monitoring, not a trade call.
$BTC $ETH
No new positions.
BTC spot is around 64,530 and perpetuals around 64,590 (morning: around 64,180 / 64,165). The bearish confirmation discussed this morning has played out and hit its target: at 08:00, the 4-hour candle cleanly broke below the morning low of around 63,320 / 63,271. Spot reached a low of around 62,006 and perpetuals around 61,956, piercing the July–August water-bottom zone around 62,275–62,535. Then came a high-volume V-shaped rebound: within the 10:00 hour, price rallied from the low. The 08:00 4-hour candle reached a high of around 65,596 / 65,565 and closed around 64,826 / 64,798 (long lower wick; the 4-hour candle has closed). The current 12:00 4-hour candle has not yet closed. Several attempts to test around 65,000 (hourly highs around 65,596, 65,169, and 65,032) have failed to hold. Price is now around 64,530, still consolidating below 65,000 and slightly below the previous consolidation zone around 64,630 / 64,588.
The middle-to-late phase has played out; don't chase shorts (the water-bottom target was hit and price has recovered). The water-bottom may have been tested, but the Wood element has not yet emerged—the near-term confirmation for Wood requires reclaiming and holding around 65,000. Don't try to catch a falling knife midway through a rebound.
Watch levels (revised from this morning; not entry signals at current prices): Bullish confirmation (Wood) = reclaim and hold around 65,000, then watch 66,456 / 67,568; renewed bearish confirmation (failed rebound) = fail to hold and reclaim around 65,000, then cleanly break below today's low of around 62,006 / 61,956 and continue lower. First watch the July low around 61,825 / 61,307, then the June 8 weekly low around 60,755 and 60k; further down, the June water-bottom zone around 59,131–57,800. The original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold of 78,210, then watch 80k.
The main tension is unchanged: tightening liquidity and December rate hikes being priced in almost fully, alongside consecutive outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs; leveraged long liquidations are an amplifying factor. The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary and long-term. The account long ratio remains relatively high, and funding rates are slightly positive; neither alone supports a crowded short-covering thesis.
ETH around 1,801 (morning: around 1,771; low: around 1,711) and SOL around 70.8 (morning: around 70.2; low: around 67.4) remain relatively weak versus BTC (24h: around −4.0%; ETH: around −5.5%, SOL: around −6.8%). Both have also staged V-shaped rebounds after piercing their water-bottoms, but have yet to hold above their respective nearby resistance levels. No clear hedge levels; don't chase. INJ remains weak; don't chase. ARB (unlock around 11/15): don't chase.
U.S. and Hong Kong cash equities markets are closed for the weekend; index futures are expected to reopen around early Monday morning (Singapore time).
Discipline: Keep each position's exposure within tolerable limits (参考 ≤5%); take profits promptly at planned levels. This is opportunity scanning and risk monitoring, not a trade call.
$BTC $ETH