BTC fell to 62,006 intraday before rebounding to 64,000; leverage still hasn’t been flushed out
Today, from 09:00 to 10:00 SGT, BTC dropped another level, hitting a low of 62,006 and breaking below the median miner shutdown price of around 62,700. It then rebounded above 65,000 over the following hour, reaching a high of 65,595. At 12:05, it was trading at around 64,740, up about 4.4% from the low.
ETH hit a low of 1,711 during the same period and is now trading around 1,815.
🔹 The quality of the rebound
The latest 4-hour candle had a lower wick measuring about 60% of its total range and closed near the top of the range, with volume 2.8 times the average of the past 20 candles. This is the first convincing high-volume candle with a long lower wick since the current decline began, suggesting buyers stepped in at lower levels.
But positioning hasn’t followed through:
Binance BTC open interest is still up about 0.9% over 24 hours
The long/short account ratio is 2.82, down only slightly from 3.19 24 hours ago
Funding rate is +0.007%/8h, still positive
Coinbase premium is -0.02%; U.S. spot buying has yet to return
BTC has now fallen more than 24% from its October high, yet long positions remain in the market. In this setup, the long lower wick looks more like a short-term handoff between short covering and dip buyers. The real flush-out has yet to happen.
🔹 Another risk to watch
Kava Lend was attacked. The attacker used inflated BUSD collateral to borrow about 55.2 million KAVA, causing losses of around $3.8 million. KAVA briefly fell more than 40%, and three South Korean exchanges have suspended related cross-chain withdrawals and transfers. The amount is not large, but weekend liquidity is thin, making it easier for DeFi incidents involving small-cap tokens to be amplified.
The funding picture has offered no support either: U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $1.55 billion last week, with BTC ETFs posting outflows of more than $1 billion for a second consecutive week.
🔹 What to watch next
The 62,000 area: today’s low. A break below it would put BTC beneath the shutdown price, making miner selling a new variable.
65,600: today’s rebound high. If BTC can’t reclaim this level, treat the move as a relief rally.
ETF flows after U.S. markets open on Monday, and the Nasdaq’s direction around Nvidia’s earnings report.
I’m more focused on when open interest and the long/short ratio will actually come down. Until then, this long lower wick only shows that buyers are stepping in; it doesn’t yet show that selling pressure has ended.
The above is a summary of publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice.
Today, from 09:00 to 10:00 SGT, BTC dropped another level, hitting a low of 62,006 and breaking below the median miner shutdown price of around 62,700. It then rebounded above 65,000 over the following hour, reaching a high of 65,595. At 12:05, it was trading at around 64,740, up about 4.4% from the low.
ETH hit a low of 1,711 during the same period and is now trading around 1,815.
🔹 The quality of the rebound
The latest 4-hour candle had a lower wick measuring about 60% of its total range and closed near the top of the range, with volume 2.8 times the average of the past 20 candles. This is the first convincing high-volume candle with a long lower wick since the current decline began, suggesting buyers stepped in at lower levels.
But positioning hasn’t followed through:
Binance BTC open interest is still up about 0.9% over 24 hours
The long/short account ratio is 2.82, down only slightly from 3.19 24 hours ago
Funding rate is +0.007%/8h, still positive
Coinbase premium is -0.02%; U.S. spot buying has yet to return
BTC has now fallen more than 24% from its October high, yet long positions remain in the market. In this setup, the long lower wick looks more like a short-term handoff between short covering and dip buyers. The real flush-out has yet to happen.
🔹 Another risk to watch
Kava Lend was attacked. The attacker used inflated BUSD collateral to borrow about 55.2 million KAVA, causing losses of around $3.8 million. KAVA briefly fell more than 40%, and three South Korean exchanges have suspended related cross-chain withdrawals and transfers. The amount is not large, but weekend liquidity is thin, making it easier for DeFi incidents involving small-cap tokens to be amplified.
The funding picture has offered no support either: U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $1.55 billion last week, with BTC ETFs posting outflows of more than $1 billion for a second consecutive week.
🔹 What to watch next
The 62,000 area: today’s low. A break below it would put BTC beneath the shutdown price, making miner selling a new variable.
65,600: today’s rebound high. If BTC can’t reclaim this level, treat the move as a relief rally.
ETF flows after U.S. markets open on Monday, and the Nasdaq’s direction around Nvidia’s earnings report.
I’m more focused on when open interest and the long/short ratio will actually come down. Until then, this long lower wick only shows that buyers are stepping in; it doesn’t yet show that selling pressure has ended.
The above is a summary of publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice.