BTC has reached the most fragile zone below — and that zone hasn’t been fully tested yet.
Key figures:
• Glassnode (warning on Nov 14, reported by bitcoin.com + KuCoin on Nov 15): BTC’s largest liquidation cluster on the 6-month heatmap is at 59,500–62,600 — long positions from the August breakout that haven’t been touched since.
• This morning’s low of 61,968 entered that zone, then BTC bounced to 64,870 (15-minute close at 09:45 WIB). That means the zone has only been partially tested — the lower part, down to 59,500, is still intact below the price.
• For comparison: short-term holder cost basis is 75,600, with 65 percent of their supply now underwater; buy orders are stacked at 68,000–72,500, and sell supply is at 83,600 (Glassnode, Nov 11).
What it means to me: this morning’s bounce isn’t proof that the zone is safe — quite the opposite, the price bounced from within the same cluster that Glassnode says could trigger a final capitulation flush if it breaks. But the heatmap is a model, not a forecast: it shows where vulnerable positions are concentrated, not where the price is bound to go.
What I’m watching next: whether BTC holds above 62,600, or drops again to test 59,500 — that’s where we’ll find out whether the final flush is coming or not.
What do you think: is a bounce from within this zone a sign that buyers are back, or just a pause before the lower part of the zone gets tested?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Likuidasi #Bitcoin $BTC
Key figures:
• Glassnode (warning on Nov 14, reported by bitcoin.com + KuCoin on Nov 15): BTC’s largest liquidation cluster on the 6-month heatmap is at 59,500–62,600 — long positions from the August breakout that haven’t been touched since.
• This morning’s low of 61,968 entered that zone, then BTC bounced to 64,870 (15-minute close at 09:45 WIB). That means the zone has only been partially tested — the lower part, down to 59,500, is still intact below the price.
• For comparison: short-term holder cost basis is 75,600, with 65 percent of their supply now underwater; buy orders are stacked at 68,000–72,500, and sell supply is at 83,600 (Glassnode, Nov 11).
What it means to me: this morning’s bounce isn’t proof that the zone is safe — quite the opposite, the price bounced from within the same cluster that Glassnode says could trigger a final capitulation flush if it breaks. But the heatmap is a model, not a forecast: it shows where vulnerable positions are concentrated, not where the price is bound to go.
What I’m watching next: whether BTC holds above 62,600, or drops again to test 59,500 — that’s where we’ll find out whether the final flush is coming or not.
What do you think: is a bounce from within this zone a sign that buyers are back, or just a pause before the lower part of the zone gets tested?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Likuidasi #Bitcoin $BTC