When BTC fell below $70,000 on Friday, I thought the dip buyers would finally have something to do. Then I woke up and saw Binance’s price page at $64,760—the 200-week moving average at $68,000 was gone too. BTC is down nearly 10% this week.
On one side, the dip buyers: the Fear & Greed Index is at 12, extreme fear; $1.3 billion in long positions got liquidated in 24 hours; leverage has been washed out, so surely a bounce is due. On the other side, reality: the dollar index has surged above 103, a 19-month high; October CPI came in hotter than expected, annual PPI is 6.5%, the odds of a December rate hike are nearing 90%, and ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in outflows in November. This isn’t just a crypto problem—the dollar is sucking liquidity out of every risk asset.
I’m leaning bearish: there’ll be bounces, and a violent short-covering rally could happen at any time, but that would be shorts getting squeezed, not a bull market turning around. A real reversal will have to wait for the dollar to cool off and for ETFs to see net inflows for several consecutive days. Otherwise, every green candle is just handing the bears more ammunition.
What would make me admit I’m wrong? If BTC’s weekly candle closes and holds above $68,000, I’ll call this a false breakdown. But if it closes below $63,000, there’ll be no support at the next stop—forget about buying the dip.
Which side are you on: at $64,760, is BTC a fear-driven bargain, or does the dollar still have more liquidity to suck out?
#BTC
On one side, the dip buyers: the Fear & Greed Index is at 12, extreme fear; $1.3 billion in long positions got liquidated in 24 hours; leverage has been washed out, so surely a bounce is due. On the other side, reality: the dollar index has surged above 103, a 19-month high; October CPI came in hotter than expected, annual PPI is 6.5%, the odds of a December rate hike are nearing 90%, and ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in outflows in November. This isn’t just a crypto problem—the dollar is sucking liquidity out of every risk asset.
I’m leaning bearish: there’ll be bounces, and a violent short-covering rally could happen at any time, but that would be shorts getting squeezed, not a bull market turning around. A real reversal will have to wait for the dollar to cool off and for ETFs to see net inflows for several consecutive days. Otherwise, every green candle is just handing the bears more ammunition.
What would make me admit I’m wrong? If BTC’s weekly candle closes and holds above $68,000, I’ll call this a false breakdown. But if it closes below $63,000, there’ll be no support at the next stop—forget about buying the dip.
Which side are you on: at $64,760, is BTC a fear-driven bargain, or does the dollar still have more liquidity to suck out?
#BTC
