Gemini’s Q3 revenue totaled $40.9 million, down 19% year over year. Spot trading volume shrank from $16.4 billion in the same period last year to $4.5 billion. A 30% year-over-year reduction in operating expenses helped narrow its net loss to $58.6 million, while prediction market revenue rose 52% quarter over quarter. (Previously: Crypto exchange Gemini exits UK and European markets, selling the businesses to stablecoin payments firm KAST for less than $10 million) (Background: Gemini expands! CFTC grants Gemini a derivatives clearing license, entering the futures and prediction market fray)   Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini reported its third-quarter results on Thursday, with total revenue of $40.9 million, 19% below the $50.6 million reported in the same period last year and down 10% from the second quarter. Its net loss narrowed to $58.6 million, far below the nearly $160 million loss a year earlier and the $107.7 million loss in the second quarter. The figures came from Gemini’s third-quarter shareholder letter. After the results were announced, the company’s stock rose as much as 6.5% in after-hours trading. Trading remained the main drag on revenue. Gemini’s third-quarter spot trading volume fell to $4.5 billion, down 73% from $16.4 billion during the 2025 crypto market bull-market peak. As a result, exchange revenue fell 47% year over year to just $13.4 million. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, trading volume had already recovered 18% from the second quarter, suggesting that the worst may be over. This was one of the few positive signals in the earnings report. The expense line was the quarter’s strongest result. Operating expenses fell 30% year over year to about $120 million. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said operating expenses had declined for three consecutive quarters. The company is investing in growth while continuing to keep a close eye on where every dollar is spent. The revenue mix is also shifting. The credit card business brought in $15.5 million, down 4% from the second quarter, but remained the largest contributor to total revenue. Assets on the platform increased from $8.4 billion in the second quarter to $13.4 billion, a gain of nearly 60%. Trading volume is falling while assets are growing, suggesting that funds held with Gemini have not ebbed along with trading activity. This also makes the share of interest and custody-based revenue an important metric to watch next quarter. The prediction market business, which has drawn the most market attention, contributed $800,000 in revenue this quarter, up 52% from the second quarter. Gemini plans to open its exchange and clearinghouse to brokerages interested in offering event contracts. It signed a letter of intent with Apex Fintech Solutions in August, but the deal has yet to be finalized. Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss said that Gemini 2.0 is betting that “the platforms that survive will be those that own their own underlying regulated infrastructure.” The stock’s performance still reflects mixed sentiment. Gemini Space Station (GEMI) rose 6.5% to $2.79 in after-hours trading, but remains down about 75% year to date, with only a fraction of its value left compared with its post-listing high in 2025. The timing of the earnings report was also awkward: on November 12, Gemini sold its UK and European businesses to stablecoin payments firm KAST for less than $10 million, effectively ending its overseas direct-operations strategy. Cutting costs, selling overseas operations, and betting on a clearinghouse are all part of the same strategy Putting these developments on a timeline connects the dots. On November 12, Gemini sold its UK and European businesses for less than $10 million, shedding the compliance, staffing, and marketing costs associated with those overseas markets. In the same quarter, operating expenses fell 30% year over year, marking their third consecutive quarterly decline. Management’s strategy is easy to read: first bring fixed costs down to a sustainable level, then concentrate resources on regulated infrastructure in the US—namely, the clearing and prediction market opportunities that can be monetized through the CFTC derivatives clearing license it obtained in April. The question is how quickly those opportunities can generate revenue. This quarter’s $800,000 in prediction market revenue amounted to just 2% of total revenue of $40.9 million. Even with 52% quarter-over-quarter growth, it is nowhere near enough to replace the $23 million in exchange revenue lost over the past year. By comparison, a peer’s transition is already further along: Payward, the parent company of Kraken, just reported third-quarter figures showing that non-trading revenue accounted for more than half of its total, as it shifted from fee income to custody, staking, and infrastructure services. Gemini’s main source of non-trading revenue is still its $15.5 million credit card business, supplemented by the potential interest income generated by its growing platform assets. The outlines of this strategy are there, but it still needs more substance. Two figures are worth watching next. First, can the letter of intent with Apex become a definitive agreement in the fourth quarter? That will determine whether prediction markets remain “a small but growing business” or become “the next main revenue stream.” Second, can Gemini retain the $13.4 billion in platform assets when trading volume recovers? If trading rebounds and assets reach new highs at the same time, Gemini will have truly turned cost discipline into growth. Related coverage: Kraken parent Payward reports $487 million in platform profit! Non-trading revenue tops half, with AI as its fifth pillar; Prediction markets go broker-style! River Markets completes CFTC futures commission merchant registration; Gemini shares surge more than 25% premarket! Secures $100 million in Bitcoin funding and wins CFTC license despite a $100 million Q1 loss. “Gemini Q3 revenue tumbles 19%, trading volume plunges 73%, but cost cuts narrow losses for the second consecutive quarter.” This article was first published by BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news outlet).