I just added another tranche to $VTHO , making my position larger than before.
On the chart, this asset has been moving sideways near the bottom of its range for a long time. It is still far from its previous high, with layers of trapped holders overhead. The short-term moving averages have only just flattened out and started to turn up. This is a recovery after the decline ran out of steam, not yet the start of a major uptrend. On the longer-term chart, it is still trading within a range. Whether it can break above the top of that range will determine whether this move is a rebound or a reversal. When overall market sentiment is positive, older assets at these low levels can easily get a quick lift from incoming funds. When sentiment weakens, though, they can give back gains just as quickly. Thin liquidity is a serious drawback, and the main thing to watch out for.
As for the narrative, it relies on the old story that this chain’s “fuel” gets consumed more as activity on the chain increases. This logic has been around for many years. At this point, it gets brought up now and then, but investors are reluctant to commit to it for the long term. For the story to catch fire again, we would need to see real usage on the chain return; hype alone won’t be enough.
So this move looks more like a low-level recovery combined with hot-money rotation, rather than a revival of the narrative. Now that I’ve added to my position, the key is whether it can hold above the top of its range. If it can’t, things will be much the same as before.
On the chart, this asset has been moving sideways near the bottom of its range for a long time. It is still far from its previous high, with layers of trapped holders overhead. The short-term moving averages have only just flattened out and started to turn up. This is a recovery after the decline ran out of steam, not yet the start of a major uptrend. On the longer-term chart, it is still trading within a range. Whether it can break above the top of that range will determine whether this move is a rebound or a reversal. When overall market sentiment is positive, older assets at these low levels can easily get a quick lift from incoming funds. When sentiment weakens, though, they can give back gains just as quickly. Thin liquidity is a serious drawback, and the main thing to watch out for.
As for the narrative, it relies on the old story that this chain’s “fuel” gets consumed more as activity on the chain increases. This logic has been around for many years. At this point, it gets brought up now and then, but investors are reluctant to commit to it for the long term. For the story to catch fire again, we would need to see real usage on the chain return; hype alone won’t be enough.
So this move looks more like a low-level recovery combined with hot-money rotation, rather than a revival of the narrative. Now that I’ve added to my position, the key is whether it can hold above the top of its range. If it can’t, things will be much the same as before.
