First target hit. Let’s start with the numbers: overnight, BTC broke below $65,000, and I’ve taken profit on half of my short at Target 1 as planned.
09:00: BTC was about $63,425, down 7.0% in 24 hours; ETH was about $1,740, down 9.8% (CoinGecko, figures checked at 09:00 Beijing time). The 24-hour ranges were BTC $63,433–$68,274 and ETH $1,740–$1,930. The lows are near current prices, and they’re still moving down.
Trade #2 update: I opened the short on Nov 14 at 07:04 in the $68,000–$69,000 range, with a $68,500 average entry. BTC broke below $65,000 sometime between 04:00 and 05:00 this morning, so I took profit on half at Target 1, $65,000, as planned: about +511% on 100x margin. I’m holding the other half: at the current price of $63,425, the price is down 7.41%, for an unrealized gain of about +741%—up another 524 points from +217% at 21:00 last night. Honestly, this trade is already very profitable, but Target 2 hasn’t been reached yet, so there’s no rush to celebrate.
Why is it still falling? Liquidations are pushing prices down: about $1.8 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours (The Kobeissi Letter), with $360 million liquidated at one point within five minutes (Watcher.Guru)—all longs. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for a seventh consecutive day: $185 million on Friday and about $1.91 billion cumulatively since Nov 5 (SoSoValue). The Fear & Greed Index is at 17, indicating extreme fear; the 4-hour RSI is around 17, deeply oversold—but oversold isn’t a signal to buy the dip; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level. XRP has fallen below $1, and SOL is near $70, with major coins all following the decline.
Technicals: The 4-hour candles closing at 00:00, 04:00, and 08:00 came in at $65,673, $65,722, and $64,120. That’s the sixth consecutive close below the 200-week moving average, around $68,000 (since Nov 14 at 12:00). Monday’s weekly close at 08:00 is the final test: a close below $68,000 would confirm the breakdown.
My decision hasn’t changed: I’m holding the other half, with Target 2 at $62,300–$62,800—only about $600 away from the current price. I’ll close as planned when it gets there; no getting greedy. The stop remains above $70,500; if a 4-hour candle closes above $70,214, I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit. I won’t consider flipping long until price rebounds above $68,000 and holds. With 100x leverage, I’m only using a very small portion of my total capital as margin. Weekend volume is thin and volatility is high, so I’m not adding to the position or chasing shorts at this level.
Do you think $62,300 is reachable this week? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko, checked at 09:00 Beijing time on Nov 15; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
09:00: BTC was about $63,425, down 7.0% in 24 hours; ETH was about $1,740, down 9.8% (CoinGecko, figures checked at 09:00 Beijing time). The 24-hour ranges were BTC $63,433–$68,274 and ETH $1,740–$1,930. The lows are near current prices, and they’re still moving down.
Trade #2 update: I opened the short on Nov 14 at 07:04 in the $68,000–$69,000 range, with a $68,500 average entry. BTC broke below $65,000 sometime between 04:00 and 05:00 this morning, so I took profit on half at Target 1, $65,000, as planned: about +511% on 100x margin. I’m holding the other half: at the current price of $63,425, the price is down 7.41%, for an unrealized gain of about +741%—up another 524 points from +217% at 21:00 last night. Honestly, this trade is already very profitable, but Target 2 hasn’t been reached yet, so there’s no rush to celebrate.
Why is it still falling? Liquidations are pushing prices down: about $1.8 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours (The Kobeissi Letter), with $360 million liquidated at one point within five minutes (Watcher.Guru)—all longs. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for a seventh consecutive day: $185 million on Friday and about $1.91 billion cumulatively since Nov 5 (SoSoValue). The Fear & Greed Index is at 17, indicating extreme fear; the 4-hour RSI is around 17, deeply oversold—but oversold isn’t a signal to buy the dip; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level. XRP has fallen below $1, and SOL is near $70, with major coins all following the decline.
Technicals: The 4-hour candles closing at 00:00, 04:00, and 08:00 came in at $65,673, $65,722, and $64,120. That’s the sixth consecutive close below the 200-week moving average, around $68,000 (since Nov 14 at 12:00). Monday’s weekly close at 08:00 is the final test: a close below $68,000 would confirm the breakdown.
My decision hasn’t changed: I’m holding the other half, with Target 2 at $62,300–$62,800—only about $600 away from the current price. I’ll close as planned when it gets there; no getting greedy. The stop remains above $70,500; if a 4-hour candle closes above $70,214, I’ll admit I’m wrong and exit. I won’t consider flipping long until price rebounds above $68,000 and holds. With 100x leverage, I’m only using a very small portion of my total capital as margin. Weekend volume is thin and volatility is high, so I’m not adding to the position or chasing shorts at this level.
Do you think $62,300 is reachable this week? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko, checked at 09:00 Beijing time on Nov 15; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
