This weekend’s move isn’t an ordinary pullback—it’s pushed prices to lows not seen in nearly three months.
On Binance spot just now: $BTC around 63,575 (24h -6.94%, morning low 63,320), $ETH around 1,745 (-9.62%, low 1,729), $BNB around 577.76 (-8.42%). SOL is weaker, around 69.57 (-10.53%). The Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 today, firmly in extreme fear.
Some people are starting to treat “extreme fear” as a buy button. I disagree—not yet, at least. The reason is very specific: on Binance’s USDT-margined futures, the global long/short account ratio for BTC was still around 3.08 at 08:00 (Asia/Shanghai), with about 75.5% of accounts long; ETH was around 2.93. Even after the sell-off, retail accounts are still tilted long; they haven’t turned into a crowded short. BTC funding rates are also still slightly positive (around 0.0065%/8h), so shorts haven’t even started paying longs. Bloomberg cited CoinGlass as reporting that roughly $1.9 billion was liquidated across the market in the 24 hours to 07:00 Sunday Singapore time (about $684 million in BTC and $466 million in ETH), mostly from long positions. Liquidations were severe, but that doesn’t mean positioning has flipped to the other side.
The more direct signal on the chart is this: after BTC hit a low of 63,320 during the 06:00 hour this morning, it rebounded to 64,574 between 07:00 and 08:00, and is now back around 63,575. This looks more like an attempt to find a floor than a trend reversal.
My view (not a promise of returns): for now, treat this morning’s low of 63,320 as a key support level. Holding it could mean sideways trading after liquidity returns over the weekend; if it breaks, it’s too early to talk about buying the dip. The more extreme the fear, the more important it is to look at positioning first—not treat a sentiment indicator as a buy signal.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
On Binance spot just now: $BTC around 63,575 (24h -6.94%, morning low 63,320), $ETH around 1,745 (-9.62%, low 1,729), $BNB around 577.76 (-8.42%). SOL is weaker, around 69.57 (-10.53%). The Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 today, firmly in extreme fear.
Some people are starting to treat “extreme fear” as a buy button. I disagree—not yet, at least. The reason is very specific: on Binance’s USDT-margined futures, the global long/short account ratio for BTC was still around 3.08 at 08:00 (Asia/Shanghai), with about 75.5% of accounts long; ETH was around 2.93. Even after the sell-off, retail accounts are still tilted long; they haven’t turned into a crowded short. BTC funding rates are also still slightly positive (around 0.0065%/8h), so shorts haven’t even started paying longs. Bloomberg cited CoinGlass as reporting that roughly $1.9 billion was liquidated across the market in the 24 hours to 07:00 Sunday Singapore time (about $684 million in BTC and $466 million in ETH), mostly from long positions. Liquidations were severe, but that doesn’t mean positioning has flipped to the other side.
The more direct signal on the chart is this: after BTC hit a low of 63,320 during the 06:00 hour this morning, it rebounded to 64,574 between 07:00 and 08:00, and is now back around 63,575. This looks more like an attempt to find a floor than a trend reversal.
My view (not a promise of returns): for now, treat this morning’s low of 63,320 as a key support level. Holding it could mean sideways trading after liquidity returns over the weekend; if it breaks, it’s too early to talk about buying the dip. The more extreme the fear, the more important it is to look at positioning first—not treat a sentiment indicator as a buy signal.
$BTC $ETH $BNB