It’s fallen into the “deep value zone,” but don’t rush to buy the dip—the capitulation isn’t over yet
$BTC Around $63,600, down 6.9% in 24 hours and about 16% over 7 days. It’s hit a new three-month low, roughly half its all-time high of $126,000.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 10, signaling extreme fear, down from 13 the day before.
On-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth capitulation since the peak: the mean reversion index has fallen to Q18 (the bottom 18% of its historical range). Below Q20 is what he defines as the deep value zone; the last time it happened was in February and late June this year.
The key question is who’s selling: daily selling volume has doubled from around $420 million to more than $850 million. Over 85% is coming from people who bought near $80,000 in September. Most long-term holders are still in profit and have barely moved.
My take: the real story behind this selling pressure is “same price, different fate”—people who thought $60,000-plus was too expensive last summer and stayed out, then chased the market above $80,000 in September, are now selling at a loss around $63,000. The sellers are mostly those with the highest cost basis; this isn’t a collapse in fundamentals.
But Q18 doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom: after entering the deep value zone in February and late June, the price went on to test lower levels. “Cheap” is based on historical ranges; it doesn’t mean prices will rise tomorrow.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether daily selling volume falls back toward $420 million; whether long-term holders start selling (that’s when the market really changes); and whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above $66,000.
Were you among those who chased the market in September and got caught, or are you waiting to see what happens below $60,000?
#比特币 #链上数据 #MarketSentiment
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC Around $63,600, down 6.9% in 24 hours and about 16% over 7 days. It’s hit a new three-month low, roughly half its all-time high of $126,000.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 10, signaling extreme fear, down from 13 the day before.
On-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth capitulation since the peak: the mean reversion index has fallen to Q18 (the bottom 18% of its historical range). Below Q20 is what he defines as the deep value zone; the last time it happened was in February and late June this year.
The key question is who’s selling: daily selling volume has doubled from around $420 million to more than $850 million. Over 85% is coming from people who bought near $80,000 in September. Most long-term holders are still in profit and have barely moved.
My take: the real story behind this selling pressure is “same price, different fate”—people who thought $60,000-plus was too expensive last summer and stayed out, then chased the market above $80,000 in September, are now selling at a loss around $63,000. The sellers are mostly those with the highest cost basis; this isn’t a collapse in fundamentals.
But Q18 doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom: after entering the deep value zone in February and late June, the price went on to test lower levels. “Cheap” is based on historical ranges; it doesn’t mean prices will rise tomorrow.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether daily selling volume falls back toward $420 million; whether long-term holders start selling (that’s when the market really changes); and whether the weekly close on Sunday can get back above $66,000.
Were you among those who chased the market in September and got caught, or are you waiting to see what happens below $60,000?
#比特币 #链上数据 #MarketSentiment
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.