Bitcoin is now at $64,084, down 6.33% in 24 hours. Its 24-hour high was $68,446.21, and its low was $63,320.
The $63,320 figure deserves a closer look. The last time Bitcoin was at this level was August 17. The entire rally from mid-August to late October has now been wiped out, and Bitcoin is 448 points below its August 17 close of $64,532. It’s down 49.2% from $126,080 in October 2025—essentially cut in half from its peak.
In my November 10 and November 11 posts, I wrote, "Altcoins didn’t fall along with Bitcoin; money left Bitcoin and went into altcoins." I misread what the metric was measuring.
The 30-day percentage change figures on CoinGecko use the field name price_change_percentage_30d_in_currency. It measures Bitcoin’s price change when denominated in a particular currency, not that currency’s own price change. I treated it as the gain for altcoins, getting the direction completely backwards.
Let's check against the actual data. From October 11 to November 10, Bitcoin fell 11.91%, DOT fell 32.80%, and ETH fell 19.07%. Altcoins fell much harder than Bitcoin.
So the claim that "money hasn't left the crypto market, it's just moved elsewhere" isn't supported by the data. The reality is that all assets are being deleveraged together, with Bitcoin falling the least.
Among today's six major coins, over the 30-day window Bitcoin fell 21.4%, BNB 19.3%, ETH 27.0%, DOGE 29.2%, XRP 30.2%, and SOL 32.8%. Bitcoin was the second most resilient, behind only BNB.
The difference isn't large, but it determines how you read the market. If this were truly capital rotation, altcoins should be rising while Bitcoin falls, and there would be somewhere else to rotate into. Instead, they're all falling in the same direction, differing only in timing and magnitude. There's no "moving somewhere else to hide." Treating Bitcoin as a safe haven would be costly, since altcoins carry more leverage than Bitcoin.
The biggest story over the past two days is trading volume. November 13 saw $2.050 billion and November 14 saw $2.154 billion—the two highest days in the 30-day window, and the only consecutive days above $2 billion. On October 29, the day Binance was hacked, volume was $1.906 billion. On November 5, the day U.S. stocks plunged, it was $2.025 billion.
Looking only at the two previous days with comparable volume: after $1.906 billion on October 29, the price fell 0.80% the next day. After $2.025 billion on November 5, it fell 0.32% the next day. Both were virtually flat. After $2.050 billion on November 13, the price fell 6.09% the next day. With similarly heavy volume, the first two were rotation; this time was a breakdown. The difference is whether there was enough buying support.
A $2.1 billion turnover paired with a red candle spanning 4,164 points, closing just 830 points above the low. That doesn't look like accumulation; someone was handing over their coins at this price.
There are three notable news items. Yi Lihua said he had discussed with Justin Sun why they were bearish on the Nasdaq and Bitcoin: the AI supply chain needs to go through a round of deleveraging and a bubble purge. Nvidia's governance turmoil is still unfolding; the petition calling for Jensen Huang's return has surpassed 100,000 signatures. Some believe that in his absence, customers are accelerating their evaluations of AMD and Google's chips, and Nvidia's lock-in with customers is beginning to weaken. The Ethereum Foundation sold 7,500 ETH over four days, including 2,500 on the final day.
None of these three stories directly targets Bitcoin, but they all point in the same direction: risk assets are being repriced across the board, and Bitcoin is not exempt.
The ETF data, through November 10, shows a daily net outflow of $95 million. The data is delayed by five days, so we can't see how much of today's drop was caused by ETF redemptions. For now, we can only mark it as "unknown."
This week's candle fell from the November 9 open of 74,851 to 64,084, down 14.39%. Its range was 12,279 points, the largest week in this window. The previous three weeks were down 2.39%, 2.25%, and 4.47%, respectively: four consecutive red weeks, with losses accelerating.
The daily moving averages are in a fully bearish alignment. EMA20 is at 73,886.5, EMA50 at 77,125.1, and EMA200 at 75,533.9. The price is 13.27% below EMA20 and 15.16% below EMA200. The gap between EMA50 and EMA20 widened from 2,505.5 yesterday to 3,238.6. The death cross is now on its 14th day and continues to widen.
RSI14 is 19.6, down from 24.5 yesterday and the lowest reading in this move. The daily MACD histogram expanded from -1,500.0 on November 13 to -2,217.3 on November 14, widening for three consecutive bars with no sign of convergence. Today's candle has just opened, so the histogram value will change by the close.
The Bollinger lower band is at 65,659.7, and the price is 1,576 points outside it, or 2.40%. The band width expanded from 18.79% to 25.16%. Widening bands while the price moves outside them indicate that the trend is progressing. An indicator reaching an extreme doesn't mean it has to reverse.
ATR14 is 2,435.2, or 3.80% of the current price. That means a move of this size in a day is now considered normal volatility; yesterday's figure was 2,262. From the October 29 close of 77,991 to now, the price has fallen 17.83% over 17 trading days.
On the 4-hour chart, EMA20 is at 68,497.7, just 51 points above the 24-hour high of 68,446.21. With the two levels so close together, this is where the current rebound has been capped. The 4-hour RSI is 15.8, even lower than the daily reading. ATR is 1,227.8, the Bollinger lower band is 63,054.2, and the band width expanded from 12.95% to 17.68%. The MACD histogram readings are -352.0, -408.6, and -409.8. Yesterday's contraction has ended, and the histogram is expanding again.
The 1-hour chart is the only timeframe showing information in the opposite direction. The MACD histogram has narrowed for three consecutive bars: -180.1, -163.5, and -140.1. RSI is 27.7. EMA20 is at 65,764.6, 1,680 points above the price.
The most important development in the chart pattern happened yesterday. The 1-hour Bollinger Band width was 2.27% the day before—the narrowest point in this move. Today it reached 7.49%, expanding 3.3 times. The direction chosen after the squeeze is down.
The intraday move came in two legs. From 10 to 11 a.m. on November 14, the price fell from 68,290 to 66,756, with $161 million in volume during that hour. It then moved sideways for nine hours, trading between 66,456 and 67,523. The second leg began at 9 p.m., falling from 66,998 to 63,320 by 6 a.m. today. Along the way, it broke three previous lows—65,000, 64,510, and 63,944—each lower than the last. The 6 a.m. hourly candle had $195 million in volume, the heaviest of this move.
The 7 a.m. candle rebounded from 63,333 to 64,200 and closed at 64,150, recovering 605 of the 911 points lost in the previous hour. One candle isn't enough, but at least it shows that someone is buying at 63,320.
Funding is now 0.004667%, compared with Binance's 0.01% baseline. Longs are paying less than half the baseline; the premium has been squeezed, but funding hasn't turned negative.
This distinction matters a lot. A negative funding rate means longs have given up and are willing to pay to get out—that's what capitulation looks like. Right now, they just "don't want to pay a premium": they're unwilling to pay more, but still willing to hold.
The lowest funding rate this round was 0.0027% on the morning of November 5, when the price was above 80,000. Today's 0.0047% is higher than it was then, yet the price is 20.6% lower. For capitulation, the price would first have to fall below that day's level.
Open interest is 97,790 contracts, down from the peak of 101,152 on November 13 at 8 a.m.—a 3.32% drop over 44 hours. In notional terms, it fell from 7.226 billion to 6.424 billion, but most of that decline came from the price drop; not many positions have been closed.
The last eight hours show the opposite: open interest rose from 96,324 to 97,790, up 1.52%, while the price fell. Rising open interest, no increase in funding, and a falling price together look more like new shorts coming in. If longs were buying the dip, they would push funding up first. It hasn't budged.
The long-to-short ratio among retail accounts is today's most noteworthy number. It peaked at 76.38% on November 14, then fell to 75.58, 75.00, and 74.54 in three consecutive declines—a cumulative drop of 1.84 percentage points. The November 5 shakeout drove this number down to 58.17%, after which it trended upward most of the time. Today is the first time it has fallen three readings in a row. The move isn't large, but for the first time, the direction has reversed.
Meanwhile, there's a news story about a whale transferring Bitcoin out of Binance and accumulating more than $115 million worth, or about 1,800 BTC at current prices. Daily trading volume of 2.154 billion is equivalent to about 33,600 BTC, so this whale's purchase is roughly 5.3% of daily volume—not enough to absorb the selling pressure. But placed alongside the decline in the retail-account long ratio, it paints a picture of "small accounts retreating while large addresses accumulate."
Three groups are hurting the most right now. Those who bought at the November 13 close of 68,314 are down 6.19%. Those who bought the November 5 high of 80,918 are down 20.8%. The group with a 24-hour weighted average entry price of 65,915 is down 2.78%. This last group is the largest, and its weighted average price is 65,915, indicating that most of the trading volume over the past 24 hours took place above that level.
The first resistance level above is 65,659.7, the daily Bollinger lower band—the first threshold the price must clear to return to its normal range. The second is 65,915, the 24-hour weighted average price, or the average cost for those who bought between yesterday and today. The third is 66,456, the low from November 14 at noon. Above that is 67,523, then the double-top zone at 68,446–68,498, where the 24-hour high meets the 4-hour EMA20. The 4-hour Bollinger midline is at 69,167.
The first support below is 63,320 itself. If that breaks, 63,054 is the 4-hour Bollinger lower band. Below the round number of 63,000 sits $378 million in long liquidations, according to the liquidation map. The current price is 1,084 points away, with only today's low in between. Further down, 62,275 is the monthly low from August 2026. 60,000 is both February's low this year and a round-number level. Below 60,000, the next reference points are June and July's lows this year: 58,115 and 57,800, respectively.
Scenario one: 40%. 63,320 fails to hold, and the price tests the 62,275 area. The trigger is a 4-hour close below 63,320, or funding remaining stuck at half the baseline without moving. When all three conditions are present—the daily MACD histogram expanding for a fourth bar, the band width still widening, and the price 2.4% outside the lower band—this usually doesn't end with a single wick.
Scenario two: 35%. The price chops between 63,320 and 65,660 until the U.S. market opens on Monday. The trigger is the 1-hour Bollinger Band width contracting back below 4% from 7.49%. Weekend liquidity is thin; we saw a precedent on November 7, when the market moved sideways on low volume for two days and direction wasn't decided until Monday.
Scenario three: 25%. The price rebounds to 65,660 or even 68,446. We would need to see all three of the following together: two consecutive 4-hour closes above 65,660, funding turning negative, and open interest dropping by more than 5% in one go. Without all three, it's just a bounce.
Don't chase intraday moves. The area from 63,320 to 63,054 is for observation, not for trading. If you want to go long, wait for a 1-hour close back above 65,000, followed by the price holding above 64,500. That level has more basis than trying to guess the bottom right now. If you want to short, around 65,660 is where the invalidation references are most concentrated: both the daily lower band and the 24-hour weighted average price are there. A move above that level would mean this wave of selling has been absorbed, and shorts should exit.
It's too early to talk about setting up a swing trade here. None of the three signals mentioned earlier have appeared: negative funding, a 5% reduction in open interest, or the Fear and Greed Index recovering from single digits. The price is cheap now, but cheap doesn't answer the question, "When will it stop falling?"
Monday will provide an external test. If the Nasdaq rises more than 1% after the U.S. market opens and Bitcoin doesn't follow, the problem lies within crypto—it's a matter of positioning structure. If both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin fall, macro factors are driving prices; it has nothing to do with the halving or ETFs.
One thing you can do right away: set alerts at 63,054 and 65,660, and don't trade in between.
First, the weekend. This price has formed in thin trading, and a level like 63,320 could get briefly pierced and then recover at any moment. A tight stop-loss could get swept.
Second, ETF data is delayed by five days. We can't currently see how much of today's drop is due to ETF redemptions; that part is a black box.
Third, the Ethereum Foundation's continued coin sales and Nvidia's governance risk: if either story gains traction on Monday, a further drop in U.S. stocks could push crypto prices down again.
Fourth, a Fear and Greed reading of 10 is an extreme. Bounces are common after extremes, but the reading can keep falling for several days. It was 20 on November 13, 13 on the 14th, and 10 today—three consecutive steps down.
Fifth, all figures come from a snapshot taken at 8:01 this morning. They will change during the day, so use real-time data when monitoring the market.