Opportunity screening | Sunday morning session
No new positions.
BTC spot around 64180, perpetual around 64165 (evening session around 66950 / 66990). The short confirmation from the evening session has played out and extended: the 20:00 four-hour candle closed cleanly below around 66456 / 66428 (spot low around 65067, close around 65742; perpetual low around 65040, close around 65719). The 00:00 four-hour candle touched the March 23 weekly low around 65000 (perpetual low around 64969), then recovered to close around 65728. At 04:00, the four-hour candle broke below 65000 again and extended lower, with spot reaching a low around 63320 and perpetual around 63271. The current 04:00 four-hour candle has not yet closed; after a weak bounce from 63320, it is around 64180 and has not recovered 65000. The move is already in its middle-to-late stage; don't chase shorts. The July–August lows around 62275–62535 have not yet been reached. The Five Elements reading remains deep in Water, not yet into Wood; don't try to catch a falling knife in this bounce either.
Observation levels (lowered from the later session; do not open positions at the current price): next confirmation = the weak bounce fails (cannot hold above or recover around 65000), followed by a clean break below today's low around 63320 / 63271 and further downside; first look below to the July–August lows around 62275–62535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold around 65000, then look at 66456 / 67568. Original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold of 78210, then look at 80k.
ETH around 1771 (evening session around 1900, low around 1729), SOL around 70.3 (evening session around 75.7, low around 68.6) are weaker than BTC (24h around −6.0%): ETH around −8.2%, SOL around −10.1%. Both are weak bounces after a breakdown, with no clear hedging setup; don't chase. INJ remains weak; don't chase. ARB (unlock on 11/15–16): don't chase.
US and Hong Kong cash markets are closed for the weekend; US futures are due to reopen around Monday 07:00 (Singapore time). The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates (rate-hike pricing, a strong dollar, and consecutive spot ETF outflows). The US Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41, still near a 19-month high. A December rate hike is still priced in at nearly 100% (around 90% for 25bp, around 10% for 50bp). The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary / long-term.
Discipline: keep exposure per trade within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profit promptly when planned levels are reached. This is an opportunity scan and risk watch, not a trade call.
$BTC $ETH
No new positions.
BTC spot around 64180, perpetual around 64165 (evening session around 66950 / 66990). The short confirmation from the evening session has played out and extended: the 20:00 four-hour candle closed cleanly below around 66456 / 66428 (spot low around 65067, close around 65742; perpetual low around 65040, close around 65719). The 00:00 four-hour candle touched the March 23 weekly low around 65000 (perpetual low around 64969), then recovered to close around 65728. At 04:00, the four-hour candle broke below 65000 again and extended lower, with spot reaching a low around 63320 and perpetual around 63271. The current 04:00 four-hour candle has not yet closed; after a weak bounce from 63320, it is around 64180 and has not recovered 65000. The move is already in its middle-to-late stage; don't chase shorts. The July–August lows around 62275–62535 have not yet been reached. The Five Elements reading remains deep in Water, not yet into Wood; don't try to catch a falling knife in this bounce either.
Observation levels (lowered from the later session; do not open positions at the current price): next confirmation = the weak bounce fails (cannot hold above or recover around 65000), followed by a clean break below today's low around 63320 / 63271 and further downside; first look below to the July–August lows around 62275–62535. Near-term invalidation = reclaim and hold around 65000, then look at 66456 / 67568. Original invalidation remains a reclaim and hold of 78210, then look at 80k.
ETH around 1771 (evening session around 1900, low around 1729), SOL around 70.3 (evening session around 75.7, low around 68.6) are weaker than BTC (24h around −6.0%): ETH around −8.2%, SOL around −10.1%. Both are weak bounces after a breakdown, with no clear hedging setup; don't chase. INJ remains weak; don't chase. ARB (unlock on 11/15–16): don't chase.
US and Hong Kong cash markets are closed for the weekend; US futures are due to reopen around Monday 07:00 (Singapore time). The main tension remains liquidity / interest rates (rate-hike pricing, a strong dollar, and consecutive spot ETF outflows). The US Dollar Index closed Friday around 103.41, still near a 19-month high. A December rate hike is still priced in at nearly 100% (around 90% for 25bp, around 10% for 50bp). The risk of quantum computing breaking encryption remains secondary / long-term.
Discipline: keep exposure per trade within tolerable limits (reference: ≤5%); take profit promptly when planned levels are reached. This is an opportunity scan and risk watch, not a trade call.
$BTC $ETH