XMR nears 461 | Wallet query method reveals identifiable differences | I’m staying defensive and watching for a fix
I remain cautious and won’t chase a bounce based on a single development commit. On November 13, PR #11744 appeared in Monero’s official code repository, discussing differences in wallet requests along a fallback path for querying the transaction pool: when a connected node does not return transaction-pool information through the block interface, the wallet uses another interface to fetch transactions from the pool. The old logic skipped transactions it had sent that were still unconfirmed. Therefore, a node able to see the requests might infer which transactions the wallet had sent from “which transactions were excluded.” The proposal changes the fetch request so it is unrelated to transaction ownership, then filters the returned results locally. Developers reproduced and verified that requests converged using three test wallets behind proxies, but the page also states that full unit and functional tests have not been run. The PR is still open and marked as awaiting review, so it cannot be said that the vulnerability has been fixed, nor that the privacy of all Monero transactions has been compromised.
This affects the boundary between wallets and nodes. Monero’s on-chain privacy design cannot automatically eliminate metadata sent by clients to untrusted nodes. If users rely on third-party remote nodes, those nodes can observe their requests, making these kinds of “behavioral fingerprints” worth taking seriously; users running their own nodes have a different exposure profile. Next, we need to see code review, testing, merging, and an official release before assessing the scope of any improvement. The project’s long-term value depends on how robust privacy is in actual use, but this proposal by itself creates neither direct buying pressure nor a consensus-layer incident on the network.
The market is weaker. At the time of querying Kraken XMR/USD, the latest trade was around $461.71, with a 24-hour low of about $461.01 and a high of $538.26; the opening reference was $528.95. This is just a price snapshot from one exchange, and the decline cannot be attributed to the PR. For now, 461 is the nearby risk level, 475 is the first area XMR needs to reclaim, and only around 490 would indicate a more convincing recovery. If it falls below 461 and still cannot reclaim it, the bounce thesis is invalid. Even if it rises back to 475, watch trading volume and whether major coins stabilize at the same time, to avoid mistaking a technical rebound for a trend reversal.
If I were trading it myself, I would stay out for now and consider only a confirmed spot long, with no high leverage. The entry trigger is for XMR to get back above 475, then hold 472–475 on a retest, while official follow-up confirms that the PR has completed review or that equivalent progress has been made on a fix. If those conditions are met, I would start with 1% of total capital, add no more than another 1% on a break above 482, and cap the total position at 2%. The first target is 490, where I would take half off; the second target is 505, where I would sell half of the remaining position. The stop goes below the retest low, with the risk on the entire trade capped at 0.3% of total capital. If XMR falls below 461 again, the fix is rejected, or exchange liquidity deteriorates further, I would close the entire position. If the conditions aren’t met, I would remain flat. If the plan hasn’t been triggered, it should not be presented as a profit recap.
Sources: Monero’s official GitHub PR #11744 and release page; Kraken XMR/USD market data. #XMR
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
I remain cautious and won’t chase a bounce based on a single development commit. On November 13, PR #11744 appeared in Monero’s official code repository, discussing differences in wallet requests along a fallback path for querying the transaction pool: when a connected node does not return transaction-pool information through the block interface, the wallet uses another interface to fetch transactions from the pool. The old logic skipped transactions it had sent that were still unconfirmed. Therefore, a node able to see the requests might infer which transactions the wallet had sent from “which transactions were excluded.” The proposal changes the fetch request so it is unrelated to transaction ownership, then filters the returned results locally. Developers reproduced and verified that requests converged using three test wallets behind proxies, but the page also states that full unit and functional tests have not been run. The PR is still open and marked as awaiting review, so it cannot be said that the vulnerability has been fixed, nor that the privacy of all Monero transactions has been compromised.
This affects the boundary between wallets and nodes. Monero’s on-chain privacy design cannot automatically eliminate metadata sent by clients to untrusted nodes. If users rely on third-party remote nodes, those nodes can observe their requests, making these kinds of “behavioral fingerprints” worth taking seriously; users running their own nodes have a different exposure profile. Next, we need to see code review, testing, merging, and an official release before assessing the scope of any improvement. The project’s long-term value depends on how robust privacy is in actual use, but this proposal by itself creates neither direct buying pressure nor a consensus-layer incident on the network.
The market is weaker. At the time of querying Kraken XMR/USD, the latest trade was around $461.71, with a 24-hour low of about $461.01 and a high of $538.26; the opening reference was $528.95. This is just a price snapshot from one exchange, and the decline cannot be attributed to the PR. For now, 461 is the nearby risk level, 475 is the first area XMR needs to reclaim, and only around 490 would indicate a more convincing recovery. If it falls below 461 and still cannot reclaim it, the bounce thesis is invalid. Even if it rises back to 475, watch trading volume and whether major coins stabilize at the same time, to avoid mistaking a technical rebound for a trend reversal.
If I were trading it myself, I would stay out for now and consider only a confirmed spot long, with no high leverage. The entry trigger is for XMR to get back above 475, then hold 472–475 on a retest, while official follow-up confirms that the PR has completed review or that equivalent progress has been made on a fix. If those conditions are met, I would start with 1% of total capital, add no more than another 1% on a break above 482, and cap the total position at 2%. The first target is 490, where I would take half off; the second target is 505, where I would sell half of the remaining position. The stop goes below the retest low, with the risk on the entire trade capped at 0.3% of total capital. If XMR falls below 461 again, the fix is rejected, or exchange liquidity deteriorates further, I would close the entire position. If the conditions aren’t met, I would remain flat. If the plan hasn’t been triggered, it should not be presented as a profit recap.
Sources: Monero’s official GitHub PR #11744 and release page; Kraken XMR/USD market data. #XMR
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
