This drop below $64,000 didn’t come with any new bearish news. It was another round of mass liquidations of leveraged positions over the weekend—but what really matters is who’s selling: it’s not old holders fleeing, but people who chased in around $80,000 in September and are now cutting their losses.
$BTC The current price is about $63,676, down 6.8% in 24 hours and 15.9% over 7 days. That’s roughly half the all-time high of $126,000.
In the hour after U.S. markets closed on Saturday afternoon, $691 million in positions were liquidated across the market, including $671 million in long positions, or 97%. BTC briefly fell below $64,000.
$ETH fell to $1,755 (-9.0%), and $SOL fell to $69.37 (-11.2%), both breaking below the key round-number levels of $1,800 and $70.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 13: Extreme Fear.
My take is that this drop has two layers, and they shouldn’t be conflated.
The first is leverage: after last night’s liquidation wave had just subsided, another one flared up this afternoon. That shows that in the weekend’s thin order books, leverage—not fundamentals—still has the pricing power. Prices can take another leg down even without any new news.
The second is spot sellers: on-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth capitulation-style sell-off since the highs. Average daily selling has doubled from about $420 million to more than $850 million, with over 85% coming from people who bought around $80,000 in September. Long-term holders’ average cost is about $49,300, and they’ve barely moved. The mean reversion index has fallen into the deep-value zone, at the 18th percentile of its historical distribution.
The key point is that “new buyers taking losses while old holders sit tight” is a typical picture of the later stages of a washout. But the first three capitulations didn’t stop the decline, so this isn’t a bottom signal. It only tells you that the selling pressure this time is mainly coming from underwater buyers who chased the rally, not long-term holders loosening their grip.
Next, watch three things for confirmation: Can the weekly close recover $65,000 tonight? If not, the weekend shakeout is turning into a genuine decline. Can Bitcoin hold the intraday low on Coinbase, around $63,270? If it breaks, first watch the roughly $62,200 level from early August, then the round-number $60,000 level. And will ETF flows stop bleeding on Monday, and will long-term holders sell? Only if they start moving would that signal structural deterioration.
At $60,000, do you see it as “the opportunity we’ve finally been waiting for” or “don’t buy the dip if it breaks”?
#比特币 #爆仓 #Federal Reserve
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC The current price is about $63,676, down 6.8% in 24 hours and 15.9% over 7 days. That’s roughly half the all-time high of $126,000.
In the hour after U.S. markets closed on Saturday afternoon, $691 million in positions were liquidated across the market, including $671 million in long positions, or 97%. BTC briefly fell below $64,000.
$ETH fell to $1,755 (-9.0%), and $SOL fell to $69.37 (-11.2%), both breaking below the key round-number levels of $1,800 and $70.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 13: Extreme Fear.
My take is that this drop has two layers, and they shouldn’t be conflated.
The first is leverage: after last night’s liquidation wave had just subsided, another one flared up this afternoon. That shows that in the weekend’s thin order books, leverage—not fundamentals—still has the pricing power. Prices can take another leg down even without any new news.
The second is spot sellers: on-chain analyst James Check says this is the fourth capitulation-style sell-off since the highs. Average daily selling has doubled from about $420 million to more than $850 million, with over 85% coming from people who bought around $80,000 in September. Long-term holders’ average cost is about $49,300, and they’ve barely moved. The mean reversion index has fallen into the deep-value zone, at the 18th percentile of its historical distribution.
The key point is that “new buyers taking losses while old holders sit tight” is a typical picture of the later stages of a washout. But the first three capitulations didn’t stop the decline, so this isn’t a bottom signal. It only tells you that the selling pressure this time is mainly coming from underwater buyers who chased the rally, not long-term holders loosening their grip.
Next, watch three things for confirmation: Can the weekly close recover $65,000 tonight? If not, the weekend shakeout is turning into a genuine decline. Can Bitcoin hold the intraday low on Coinbase, around $63,270? If it breaks, first watch the roughly $62,200 level from early August, then the round-number $60,000 level. And will ETF flows stop bleeding on Monday, and will long-term holders sell? Only if they start moving would that signal structural deterioration.
At $60,000, do you see it as “the opportunity we’ve finally been waiting for” or “don’t buy the dip if it breaks”?
#比特币 #爆仓 #Federal Reserve
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.