$NEAR fell 11% in a day, and among the top 30, only UNI fell more—but the scariest thing about this move isn’t the drop. It’s the 11.8 million coins of stolen funds still hanging overhead, untouched.
The current price is around $3.08. Over the past 24 hours, it slid from $3.56 to $3.06; it’s down 14% over 7 days and around 30% over 30 days. Market cap is about $4.1 billion, 24-hour trading volume is over $600 million, and open interest in futures is $580 million. Most of today’s liquidations were longs.
My take: this move isn’t because NEAR itself has a problem. It’s a combination of a broader market sell-off and an overhanging bearish catalyst—Elliptic’s on-chain analysis from November 9: 11.8 million NEAR from the Binance hack are still sitting untouched in the hackers’ wallets, and only 117,000 have been laundered. As long as the coins don’t move, the bearish catalyst hasn’t played out; if they do move, the selling pressure will be obvious.
There’s some good news, too: governance vote HSP-029 passed on November 2, reducing annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% over the next 24 months. NEAR Intents is also attracting institutional capital. Fundamentals are improving while the price is falling—that’s the contradiction at the heart of NEAR right now.
On a crash day, retail traders are most likely to make one mistake: see an 11% drop and think “it’s cheap” before trying to catch the falling knife, forgetting to ask: if those 11.8 million coins start moving, are you buying the bottom or halfway down?
Key levels / signals to watch next:
A move above $3.44 would confirm an oversold bounce, with shorts starting to cover;
A break below $3.06 (today’s low) would open the door to further downside, with $2.84 as the next level;
If those 11.8 million stolen NEAR start moving, any bullish view on a rebound is invalidated immediately.
Which do you think comes first: a move above $3.44 or a break below $3.06?
Analysis only; I have no position.
This is my personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#NEAR #加密货币 #Altcoins
The current price is around $3.08. Over the past 24 hours, it slid from $3.56 to $3.06; it’s down 14% over 7 days and around 30% over 30 days. Market cap is about $4.1 billion, 24-hour trading volume is over $600 million, and open interest in futures is $580 million. Most of today’s liquidations were longs.
My take: this move isn’t because NEAR itself has a problem. It’s a combination of a broader market sell-off and an overhanging bearish catalyst—Elliptic’s on-chain analysis from November 9: 11.8 million NEAR from the Binance hack are still sitting untouched in the hackers’ wallets, and only 117,000 have been laundered. As long as the coins don’t move, the bearish catalyst hasn’t played out; if they do move, the selling pressure will be obvious.
There’s some good news, too: governance vote HSP-029 passed on November 2, reducing annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% over the next 24 months. NEAR Intents is also attracting institutional capital. Fundamentals are improving while the price is falling—that’s the contradiction at the heart of NEAR right now.
On a crash day, retail traders are most likely to make one mistake: see an 11% drop and think “it’s cheap” before trying to catch the falling knife, forgetting to ask: if those 11.8 million coins start moving, are you buying the bottom or halfway down?
Key levels / signals to watch next:
A move above $3.44 would confirm an oversold bounce, with shorts starting to cover;
A break below $3.06 (today’s low) would open the door to further downside, with $2.84 as the next level;
If those 11.8 million stolen NEAR start moving, any bullish view on a rebound is invalidated immediately.
Which do you think comes first: a move above $3.44 or a break below $3.06?
Analysis only; I have no position.
This is my personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#NEAR #加密货币 #Altcoins