U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks—let’s look at them together today
There’s no new narrative in U.S. stocks today, just price moves.
I’m calculating technical levels using today’s highs and lows, not forcing old support levels to fit.
10-year Treasury yield 5.15% (5-day +5.96%)
Dow 52,348 (5-day +2.07%, Yahoo)
BTC 24h high 69125 / low 65000, current price 65546. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.15%, up another +5.96% over 5 days. The long end is draining liquidity, and growth stocks and BTC both have to give way on their valuation stories.
ETH is down 6.32% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -5.10%; exchange rate 0.02789. Capital is consolidating into BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins until there’s confirmation.
Next, I’m watching to see whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as mere bounces.
My position: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the decline is accompanied by reduced open interest, buying on the way down is just catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are not filled in.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#美股 #技术面 #BTC
Takeaway: A stronger DXY drains global dollar liquidity, not just liquidity from U.S. stocks.
Thought: VIX<16: U.S. stocks can grind higher on sentiment, but trim futures positions by one notch.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are dashes):
BTC 65,546 -5.10% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,828 -6.32% ETH/BTC 0.02789
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0039% Open interest 6.41B (24h -5.58) Long/short 2.9401 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks\" - Google News.” I’m treating it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
There’s no new narrative in U.S. stocks today, just price moves.
I’m calculating technical levels using today’s highs and lows, not forcing old support levels to fit.
10-year Treasury yield 5.15% (5-day +5.96%)
Dow 52,348 (5-day +2.07%, Yahoo)
BTC 24h high 69125 / low 65000, current price 65546. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.15%, up another +5.96% over 5 days. The long end is draining liquidity, and growth stocks and BTC both have to give way on their valuation stories.
ETH is down 6.32% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -5.10%; exchange rate 0.02789. Capital is consolidating into BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins until there’s confirmation.
Next, I’m watching to see whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as mere bounces.
My position: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the decline is accompanied by reduced open interest, buying on the way down is just catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are not filled in.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or already on board?
#美股 #技术面 #BTC
Takeaway: A stronger DXY drains global dollar liquidity, not just liquidity from U.S. stocks.
Thought: VIX<16: U.S. stocks can grind higher on sentiment, but trim futures positions by one notch.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are dashes):
BTC 65,546 -5.10% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,828 -6.32% ETH/BTC 0.02789
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0039% Open interest 6.41B (24h -5.58) Long/short 2.9401 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks\" - Google News.” I’m treating it only as background; my conclusions are still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL