Hello, traders!
Today, we'll analyze $CFX , which is currently actively setting new local lows at $0.03522, causing panic in the market. While most of the crowd is trying to “catch a falling knife,” we'll look at the facts and metrics that are usually hidden from retail traders.
📉 1. Technical picture: The trend is your enemy
On the daily (1D) and 4-hour (4H) timeframes, CFX has been in a prolonged downtrend since spring. The price is sliding below MA 7, and sellers instantly shut down any attempts to bounce. The current daily candle is closing at -12.11%—a clear capitulation on elevated volume, with no signs of buyers.
📊 2. Futures Metrics: The Crowd Is Trapped
Abnormal long/short ratio:
The ratio of top traders’ positions and accounts is ~1.95 in favor of longs! Retail traders stubbornly keep buying the dip, hoping for a bounce. For the Market Maker (MM), this is ideal liquidity (“fuel”) for a further sell-off.
Declining Open Interest (OI):
The decline accompanies the falling price, indicating forced position closures (liquidations) and long traders realizing losses.
🧱 3. Order Book: “An Air Pocket”
There are huge sell walls (asks) worth over 1 million USDT above, at $0.039–$0.040. Meanwhile, support (bids) below is nearly empty. If panic sets in, there simply won’t be enough buyers at $0.034–$0.025, and the price will flash through this range.
⌛ 4. A Lesson from History:
November 2022. It’s worth remembering what happened: from November 8 to 10, 2022, CFX fell -40.19% in just 2 days on volume of 181.91 M, triggering a cascade of long liquidations. An MM “pulling support” scenario is entirely possible now too, with an empty order book and too many long traders.
🔮 Outlook and Scenarios:
Main scenario:
A continued slide to $0.030–$0.032, and in a panic, even to $0.024, where the MM could buy up the cascade of long liquidations.
Alternative:
A manipulative short squeeze that is unlikely to last due to massive overhead resistance.
📌 Conclusion:
Buying CFX at current prices is quite risky—we’re not playing roulette with a market manipulator. It’s much safer to watch and wait for a capitulation sell-off into the $0.024–$0.028 zone, then look for a long entry on the panic with a tight stop.
Stay strong and protect your deposits! 🦾🚀
⚠️ Important rule:
There’s an ironclad rule in crypto: never risk money your family depends on.
Not individual investment advice. DYOR.
