#比特币活跃供应盈利占比跌破45%
Current price: 65,000, down 5% in 24h; low: 65,000. Fear & Greed Index: 13.
This number tells us just one thing: more than half of the active supply is underwater. It measures the strength of selling pressure, not where the bottom is.
**The real criteria are two others:** CryptoQuant’s historical benchmark is that the share of supply in profit must remain steadily above 64% for the bear market to be considered over; meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR has stayed below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, meaning long-term holders are still selling at a loss.
The market already played this out once between April and June this year: LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the share of supply in profit surged to 67%, before both fell back across the board.
This time is harsher. It’s down 46% from its all-time high of 126,000.
So falling below 45% isn’t a reversal signal; it’s a progress bar showing that “capitulation is still underway.”
Two confirmation conditions: ① The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR rises above 1 and holds there for several weeks; ② the share of supply in profit stays steadily above 64%.
Until then, dip buyers aren’t visionaries—they’re liquidity.
$NVDAB $ETH $BTC #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？
Current price: 65,000, down 5% in 24h; low: 65,000. Fear & Greed Index: 13.
This number tells us just one thing: more than half of the active supply is underwater. It measures the strength of selling pressure, not where the bottom is.
**The real criteria are two others:** CryptoQuant’s historical benchmark is that the share of supply in profit must remain steadily above 64% for the bear market to be considered over; meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR has stayed below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, meaning long-term holders are still selling at a loss.
The market already played this out once between April and June this year: LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the share of supply in profit surged to 67%, before both fell back across the board.
This time is harsher. It’s down 46% from its all-time high of 126,000.
So falling below 45% isn’t a reversal signal; it’s a progress bar showing that “capitulation is still underway.”
Two confirmation conditions: ① The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR rises above 1 and holds there for several weeks; ② the share of supply in profit stays steadily above 64%.
Until then, dip buyers aren’t visionaries—they’re liquidity.
$NVDAB $ETH $BTC #英伟达正物色新CEO，谁会接替黄仁勋？
