Loss-making supply overtakes profitable supply: Bitcoin’s active supply in profit falls below 45%
On-chain analysis on November 14 showed that the share of Bitcoin’s active supply at a loss had surpassed the share in profit. Excluding coins that have been dormant for more than ten years, less than 45% of the supply is in profit.
Another metric is weakening in tandem: around 61% of the total supply is in profit, compared with the more than 75% typically seen during bull markets.
Bitcoin price: $65,886 on Binance Spot and $65,547 on Coinbase, down 4.30% in a day and 13.37% in a week, and 48% below its all-time high of $126,210 on October 6.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 16, indicating extreme fear. On November 13, Bitcoin’s price had just fallen below $70,000.
With 45% breached, 40% is the next historical threshold. Historically, a drop below 40% has often coincided with cycle lows. If the share in profit continues to decline and falls below 40%, while Bitcoin fails to hold $65,000, this correction may not have bottomed out yet. Conversely, if the share in profit recovers to above 50% within a week and Bitcoin regains $70,000, panic selling will have run its course, supporting the view that prices are near a cycle low.
Investors have already taken losses; the question is whether prices will follow. Watch these two levels: $65,000 and 40%. $BTC #Bitcoin
On-chain analysis on November 14 showed that the share of Bitcoin’s active supply at a loss had surpassed the share in profit. Excluding coins that have been dormant for more than ten years, less than 45% of the supply is in profit.
Another metric is weakening in tandem: around 61% of the total supply is in profit, compared with the more than 75% typically seen during bull markets.
Bitcoin price: $65,886 on Binance Spot and $65,547 on Coinbase, down 4.30% in a day and 13.37% in a week, and 48% below its all-time high of $126,210 on October 6.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 16, indicating extreme fear. On November 13, Bitcoin’s price had just fallen below $70,000.
With 45% breached, 40% is the next historical threshold. Historically, a drop below 40% has often coincided with cycle lows. If the share in profit continues to decline and falls below 40%, while Bitcoin fails to hold $65,000, this correction may not have bottomed out yet. Conversely, if the share in profit recovers to above 50% within a week and Bitcoin regains $70,000, panic selling will have run its course, supporting the view that prices are near a cycle low.
Investors have already taken losses; the question is whether prices will follow. Watch these two levels: $65,000 and 40%. $BTC #Bitcoin