Bitcoin has broken below its high from five years ago.
The high in November 2021 was $69,000. Now it’s $65,000. Even someone who bought that day and held for five years is now sitting on a paper loss. The heatmap is all red, with only the inactive gray Tether and USD Coin standing out.
There are two reasons. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5%, and leveraged buyers are being liquidated one after another. It’s Saturday, so stocks and bonds are closed, leaving little buying support to absorb the selling.
There are two possible scenarios from here.
It could dip to trigger the cluster of liquidations below $62,000. Prices tend to gravitate toward areas where stop-loss orders have piled up.
After that dip, it could rebound sharply. There’s still a cluster of short liquidations around $75,000, which also lines up with Strategy’s average purchase price. Once the downside has been cleared out, a squeeze up to that level becomes more likely.
The last three bottoms came about 17 months before the halving, which is right around this month. But unlike last time, interest rates are above 5%.
For leveraged positions, reduce exposure over the weekend.
For spot positions, don’t buy until it leaves a wick below $62,000 and rebounds. If you do buy, don’t put it all in at once—spread it across several purchases.
There are days when even holding for five years doesn’t pay off.
That’s why I spread my exposure across different amounts and time frames.
$BTC
$DODO
$SOPH
The high in November 2021 was $69,000. Now it’s $65,000. Even someone who bought that day and held for five years is now sitting on a paper loss. The heatmap is all red, with only the inactive gray Tether and USD Coin standing out.
There are two reasons. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5%, and leveraged buyers are being liquidated one after another. It’s Saturday, so stocks and bonds are closed, leaving little buying support to absorb the selling.
There are two possible scenarios from here.
It could dip to trigger the cluster of liquidations below $62,000. Prices tend to gravitate toward areas where stop-loss orders have piled up.
After that dip, it could rebound sharply. There’s still a cluster of short liquidations around $75,000, which also lines up with Strategy’s average purchase price. Once the downside has been cleared out, a squeeze up to that level becomes more likely.
The last three bottoms came about 17 months before the halving, which is right around this month. But unlike last time, interest rates are above 5%.
For leveraged positions, reduce exposure over the weekend.
For spot positions, don’t buy until it leaves a wick below $62,000 and rebounds. If you do buy, don’t put it all in at once—spread it across several purchases.
There are days when even holding for five years doesn’t pay off.
That’s why I spread my exposure across different amounts and time frames.
$BTC
$DODO
$SOPH
