A couple of casual thoughts before the US market open
Let’s get through the US market numbers first, then decide whether crypto is following along.
These macro numbers are current prices, not a look back:
Dollar Index 103.41 (5-day +1.73%)
US 10-year Treasury yield 5.15% (5-day +5.96%)
Crude oil 88.56 (5-day +1.97%, Yahoo)
So: the dollar is strong, up 1.73% over 5 days, while BTC is down 5.00%—same direction. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto: BTC 65364 (-5.00%), funding rate 0.0033% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 5.66% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -5.00%; exchange rate 0.02791. Money is moving into BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat any bounce in growth stocks and BTC as a retracement.
My position: I’m not trying to catch the first dip. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Would you dare to add to your position at this funding rate?
#宏观 #BTC #US stocks
Useful takeaway: On the day a regulatory fine is imposed, compliant coins and meme coins will diverge.
Food for thought: Fear & Greed >75: things are lively, but don’t add the first layer of leverage.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 65,364 -5.00% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,824 -5.66% ETH/BTC 0.02791
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0033% Open interest 6.36B (24h -6.24) Long/short 3.0 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I’m only using it as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s get through the US market numbers first, then decide whether crypto is following along.
These macro numbers are current prices, not a look back:
Dollar Index 103.41 (5-day +1.73%)
US 10-year Treasury yield 5.15% (5-day +5.96%)
Crude oil 88.56 (5-day +1.97%, Yahoo)
So: the dollar is strong, up 1.73% over 5 days, while BTC is down 5.00%—same direction. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto: BTC 65364 (-5.00%), funding rate 0.0033% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH is down 5.66% over 24h, weaker than BTC at -5.00%; exchange rate 0.02791. Money is moving into BTC, so I’m staying on the sidelines with altcoins for now.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat any bounce in growth stocks and BTC as a retracement.
My position: I’m not trying to catch the first dip. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Would you dare to add to your position at this funding rate?
#宏观 #BTC #US stocks
Useful takeaway: On the day a regulatory fine is imposed, compliant coins and meme coins will diverge.
Food for thought: Fear & Greed >75: things are lively, but don’t add the first layer of leverage.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 65,364 -5.00% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,824 -5.66% ETH/BTC 0.02791
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0033% Open interest 6.36B (24h -6.24) Long/short 3.0 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I’m only using it as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL