$BTC has broken below 67,800–68,300 (200-week moving average + power-law floor + 2021 bull market high), a triple support level. Fear and Greed Index: 13 (extreme fear)
Three underlying drivers
Macro reversal: October CPI came in at +0.4% month over month and core CPI at +0.3%, both above expectations; nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above expectations; and PPI rose 6.5% year over year, its highest since 2022/11 → bets on a 25 bp rate hike at the 12/8–9 meeting rose to 85–90%, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, and the dollar hit a 19-month high. Gold fell 4.8% and silver 6.3% that same week—the market is indiscriminately selling “assets that generate no yield.”
Anthropic IPO cash drain: Set to list on 11/19, it plans to raise up to $64.4 billion plus $26 billion in private funding, at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Subscriptions reached 6× the shares available, and Nvidia committed to subscribe for $10 billion. The quickest asset to liquidate for cash is Bitcoin, which trades 24/7. A comparable example: before SpaceX listed in June, BTC fell from $75,000 to $60,000 in five days (-20%), then rebounded to $68,000 after the listing. This time, it has already fallen about 18% ahead of the listing.
Self-reinforcing leverage: Breaking below key moving averages → algorithmic stop-losses + cascading liquidations of long positions. On 11/14, $1.291 billion in positions were liquidated across the market (83% longs; 164,000 traders liquidated); the figure was even higher on 11/13, at $1.64 billion.
Why the sell-off is especially severe on weekends
Crypto is the only risk market in the world that remains open; US spot ETFs are closed on weekends, so the biggest institutional buyers disappear entirely. Monday is “bad news → price falls first → ETFs absorb some of the selling”; weekends are “zero buyers + full-force selling.” Weekend liquidity is halved, and order-book depth drops 33%. The last two hourly candles tonight saw volume pick up as prices stepped down again (66,791→65,863→65,042)—this isn’t a low-volume grind down; it’s a high-volume accelerated sell-off.
Spot buyers have accumulated roughly $160 million in net purchases over the past three trading days, and holders haven’t capitulated; it’s leveraged positions being sold. So this looks more like “deleveraging in progress.” Meanwhile, OI ($48.89 billion, -4.2%) has yet to stabilize at a low, and the funding rate has only eased back to +0.0069%. Don’t interpret the current panic as “the bottom is in.”
What to watch next: perpetual OI stabilizing + funding rates returning to zero; ETF net inflows; the dollar and 10-year Treasury yield peaking; Nvidia’s earnings after 11/18 05:00; and the market’s reaction to Anthropic’s 11/19 listing. Support below: 65,000 → 60,000 (February low + largest long liquidation recorded by Glassnode) → 57,000
Bought spot in several batches
Three underlying drivers
Macro reversal: October CPI came in at +0.4% month over month and core CPI at +0.3%, both above expectations; nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above expectations; and PPI rose 6.5% year over year, its highest since 2022/11 → bets on a 25 bp rate hike at the 12/8–9 meeting rose to 85–90%, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, and the dollar hit a 19-month high. Gold fell 4.8% and silver 6.3% that same week—the market is indiscriminately selling “assets that generate no yield.”
Anthropic IPO cash drain: Set to list on 11/19, it plans to raise up to $64.4 billion plus $26 billion in private funding, at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Subscriptions reached 6× the shares available, and Nvidia committed to subscribe for $10 billion. The quickest asset to liquidate for cash is Bitcoin, which trades 24/7. A comparable example: before SpaceX listed in June, BTC fell from $75,000 to $60,000 in five days (-20%), then rebounded to $68,000 after the listing. This time, it has already fallen about 18% ahead of the listing.
Self-reinforcing leverage: Breaking below key moving averages → algorithmic stop-losses + cascading liquidations of long positions. On 11/14, $1.291 billion in positions were liquidated across the market (83% longs; 164,000 traders liquidated); the figure was even higher on 11/13, at $1.64 billion.
Why the sell-off is especially severe on weekends
Crypto is the only risk market in the world that remains open; US spot ETFs are closed on weekends, so the biggest institutional buyers disappear entirely. Monday is “bad news → price falls first → ETFs absorb some of the selling”; weekends are “zero buyers + full-force selling.” Weekend liquidity is halved, and order-book depth drops 33%. The last two hourly candles tonight saw volume pick up as prices stepped down again (66,791→65,863→65,042)—this isn’t a low-volume grind down; it’s a high-volume accelerated sell-off.
Spot buyers have accumulated roughly $160 million in net purchases over the past three trading days, and holders haven’t capitulated; it’s leveraged positions being sold. So this looks more like “deleveraging in progress.” Meanwhile, OI ($48.89 billion, -4.2%) has yet to stabilize at a low, and the funding rate has only eased back to +0.0069%. Don’t interpret the current panic as “the bottom is in.”
What to watch next: perpetual OI stabilizing + funding rates returning to zero; ETF net inflows; the dollar and 10-year Treasury yield peaking; Nvidia’s earnings after 11/18 05:00; and the market’s reaction to Anthropic’s 11/19 listing. Support below: 65,000 → 60,000 (February low + largest long liquidation recorded by Glassnode) → 57,000
Bought spot in several batches