• Bitcoin price was quoted at $65,751 at 15:10 UTC, down from about $80,000 in early November.

• Price dropped below the 100-day moving average near $78,000 and the 200-day average near $73,000.

• The aSOPR 30-day average reached about 1.013 in October before slipping under break-even.

Coins Move Below Break-Even

Bitcoin (BTC) trades between two levels the chart itself supplies: the $70,000 zone above, where the August rally started, and the $63,000 demand area below, which overlaps the August consolidation range. Spot markets quoted the Bitcoin price at $65,751 at 15:10 UTC today, and the live reading now sits close to that mark, near $65,684, down 4.5% over the past day. The event inside this band is on-chain. The 30-day exponential moving average of the adjusted spent output profit ratio, known as aSOPR, printed 0.995 at the time of the analysis, below the break-even line of 1. The metric follows coins crossing the ledger of the proof-of-work network and asks one question: whether the average moved coin changed hands above or below the value of its previous transfer. Above 1, spending realizes profit. Below 1, spending realizes loss. At 0.995, transfers on the chain are, on average, booking a deficit, down from the roughly 1.013 the 30-day average reached in October. The 0.995 figure is not a single-day value; it is a smoothed 30-day average, which makes the crossing of break-even slower and harder to reverse than a one-day print. Movements younger than one hour stay out of the calculation, a filter that screens out fresh crypto mining payouts and other immediate churn. Transfers of every size count, from small wallets to crypto whale flows. Coins that never move, the base of HODL behavior, register nothing in the ratio. The slide into this reading came fast. The pace of decline quickened over the past week, with price pushed to about $65,000 before it settled back around $65,500. Earlier in November the market was rejected near $80,000, and the descent has paused only briefly since.

Structure has broken on more than one timeframe for the Bitcoin market. On the daily chart, price left the lower edge of the ascending channel that had carried the recovery from the June low. The move also put Bitcoin under both major moving averages, the 100-day line near $78,000 and the 200-day line near $73,000. Those two averages crossed to the upside in early October, and price has since closed beneath both. The shorter picture runs on a channel of its own. After rejection from the $86,000-$87,000 supply zone in late September, the 4-hour chart shows lower highs and lower lows in sequence. The attempt through the channel top in early November stalled near $81,000. From there price slipped under the $76,000 demand zone, then under $70,000, pushed as far down as $65,000, and has since moved near $65,500. The zone map frames what lies past each edge. The $70,000 line marks the band where the August surge began. The next demand zone sits at $63,000, overlapping the August consolidation. Beneath that, $60,000 carries more weight: it is the band where the June and July lows formed. These are zones read from past charts, and support at any of them is not yet confirmed. The aSOPR history gives the current print its context. The indicator reached about 1.07 in the late-2024 rally and held above 1 for most of 2025. In early 2026 it fell to roughly 0.98 while price dropped near $60,000, and it dipped under 1 again at the June-July lows. October lifted the 30-day average to about 1.013 before the current decline pulled it to 0.995. Sub-1 readings have coincided with sell-pressure exhaustion at local bottoms, though the metric fell further in February, so the level alone does not fix a floor. Earlier reporting this year counted eight of twelve capitulation indicators triggered in mid-August; those measures and their reference dates differ from aSOPR, so the two cannot be read side by side. The slide also extends the weekly loss to 11.5% recorded earlier this week.

Our composite support and resistance scoring frames the tight spot price occupies. The nearest support, at $65,637, scored 77 out of 100; the nearest resistance, at $72,688, carries 97/100. Spot trades about $46 above that support line. Momentum backs the loss-realization picture: the relative strength index prints 21.43, and sentiment sits at 13 out of 100, deep in extreme fear. Sub-break-even spending alongside these readings describes a market absorbing sellers rather than chasing bids. The full map of support and resistance levels sits in our Bitcoin technical analysis. The decisive reading for the sessions ahead is simple: the distance between $65,684 and the line at $65,637.