There’s still a day to go before the weekly candle closes, but $BTC has already slipped below the 200-week moving average.
As I write this, BTC is around 65,700 on CoinGecko, down 4.6% in 24 hours and more than 13% over the week. The 200-week moving average is now around 67,990. The last time price touched it was August 19, when it bounced right back. This time it’s gone straight through, and is already more than 3% below it.
Over the past few years, I’ve gotten into the habit of judging the weekly chart by the Sunday close, not by intraday wicks. If it closes below the line and still can’t get back above it the following week, then I’d call that a real breakdown. So the day and a half from tonight into tomorrow matters more than any five-minute wick.
Two other things are making me more cautious.
First, the 4-hour RSI has fallen to around 20. Textbook-wise, that’s oversold, but oversold only means the drop has been sharp; it doesn’t mean it’s over. In the hour BTC fell below 66,000, about $215 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market. People who insist that oversold means an inevitable bounce are often the next ones to get liquidated.
Second, even the biggest buyer is underwater. According to its November 8 disclosure, Strategy holds more than 850,000 BTC at an average price of 75,456. At current prices, that’s an unrealized loss of around 13%. It hasn’t sold, so this is only a paper loss—but for now, we can set aside the idea that “someone will step in to support the price.”
Altcoins look even worse. $SOL 24 is down 7.7% over the past 24 hours, to around 73.8; $ETH has also lost 1,850; and only 39 of the top 250 coins by market cap are up.
My own approach is simple: no new positions in futures, and I’m not buying this dip on the spot market. I’ve set two alerts for BTC: let’s talk again if it gets back above 67,990, and I’ll take another look around 64,850 (the lower band on the 4-hour chart) to see if there’s any buying support. No decisions before the weekly close.
Do you think BTC can get back above the 200-week moving average by Sunday’s close?
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
As I write this, BTC is around 65,700 on CoinGecko, down 4.6% in 24 hours and more than 13% over the week. The 200-week moving average is now around 67,990. The last time price touched it was August 19, when it bounced right back. This time it’s gone straight through, and is already more than 3% below it.
Over the past few years, I’ve gotten into the habit of judging the weekly chart by the Sunday close, not by intraday wicks. If it closes below the line and still can’t get back above it the following week, then I’d call that a real breakdown. So the day and a half from tonight into tomorrow matters more than any five-minute wick.
Two other things are making me more cautious.
First, the 4-hour RSI has fallen to around 20. Textbook-wise, that’s oversold, but oversold only means the drop has been sharp; it doesn’t mean it’s over. In the hour BTC fell below 66,000, about $215 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market. People who insist that oversold means an inevitable bounce are often the next ones to get liquidated.
Second, even the biggest buyer is underwater. According to its November 8 disclosure, Strategy holds more than 850,000 BTC at an average price of 75,456. At current prices, that’s an unrealized loss of around 13%. It hasn’t sold, so this is only a paper loss—but for now, we can set aside the idea that “someone will step in to support the price.”
Altcoins look even worse. $SOL 24 is down 7.7% over the past 24 hours, to around 73.8; $ETH has also lost 1,850; and only 39 of the top 250 coins by market cap are up.
My own approach is simple: no new positions in futures, and I’m not buying this dip on the spot market. I’ve set two alerts for BTC: let’s talk again if it gets back above 67,990, and I’ll take another look around 64,850 (the lower band on the 4-hour chart) to see if there’s any buying support. No decisions before the weekly close.
Do you think BTC can get back above the 200-week moving average by Sunday’s close?
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.