$BTC Too many short-term bearish factors
Current price: $67K, down 3% in 24 hours, with a low of 66,427. Fear & Greed Index: 12.
First, let's correct one misjudgment: retail traders aren't adding to their long positions—they're being carried out. Liquidations totaled $278 million over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 87%; open interest fell 5% in a day, and CoinGlass shows the status as "longs closing positions."
The assessment that market makers are selling more as prices fall is right. Spot net outflows totaled $189 million over 24 hours, with $128 million flowing out of Coinbase alone. Positions are being flushed from the futures market, and spot holders are fleeing too.
As for the "65K high-volume supply"—the direction is right, but the level needs adjusting. BTC is testing the 200-week moving average (67,975). The first support is 66,999; if that breaks, watch 65,610, then 62,435.
The key isn't whether it falls to 65K, but whether anyone steps in to buy when it gets there. ETFs have seen outflows for seven consecutive days, with $1.91 billion in redemptions over the past seven days. Leverage can be flushed out, but the money needed to catch the fall has to come from outside.
The funding rate is still above zero (+0.0015%). As prices keep falling, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
Without capitulation, there's no talk of a bottom. Don't try to guess the bottom; wait for the weekly close to tell us—close above 68,000, and the long-term trend remains intact; close below, and 62,000 is next.$BTC $NVDAB #加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？
Current price: $67K, down 3% in 24 hours, with a low of 66,427. Fear & Greed Index: 12.
First, let's correct one misjudgment: retail traders aren't adding to their long positions—they're being carried out. Liquidations totaled $278 million over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 87%; open interest fell 5% in a day, and CoinGlass shows the status as "longs closing positions."
The assessment that market makers are selling more as prices fall is right. Spot net outflows totaled $189 million over 24 hours, with $128 million flowing out of Coinbase alone. Positions are being flushed from the futures market, and spot holders are fleeing too.
As for the "65K high-volume supply"—the direction is right, but the level needs adjusting. BTC is testing the 200-week moving average (67,975). The first support is 66,999; if that breaks, watch 65,610, then 62,435.
The key isn't whether it falls to 65K, but whether anyone steps in to buy when it gets there. ETFs have seen outflows for seven consecutive days, with $1.91 billion in redemptions over the past seven days. Leverage can be flushed out, but the money needed to catch the fall has to come from outside.
The funding rate is still above zero (+0.0015%). As prices keep falling, longs are still paying to hold their positions.
Without capitulation, there's no talk of a bottom. Don't try to guess the bottom; wait for the weekly close to tell us—close above 68,000, and the long-term trend remains intact; close below, and 62,000 is next.$BTC $NVDAB #加密美股齐跌，下轮反弹的驱动力在哪？
