Are we waiting for a half-point shock?
A week ago, Wall #ستريت was still assigning nearly a 24% chance that #الفيدرالي would hold interest rates steady in December. But according to some news platforms’ tracking on Friday evening, a hold had disappeared from market pricing. The market now sees a 90.5% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 9.5% chance of a half-point hike.
Who opened the door? Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Before the release of the #التضخم data, he said a half-point hike was worth considering if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher. The figure did in fact come in at 0.3%, compared with expectations of 0.2%.
So, could things get tougher from here? The pressure could continue even if the Fed settles for a quarter-point hike. The market had priced in a 67.5% chance of two hikes by January, and the yield on the US 10-year #السندات Treasury note topped 5.15%. Persistently high yields make financing more expensive and put pressure on growth-stock valuations.
Before the December 9 decision, all eyes are on the Fed minutes on November 18 and the inflation data on the 25th. If the Fed signals more hikes than the market has priced in, even a quarter-point move could jolt the market.
This is not investment advice.
#WhoWillSucceedJensenHuangatNvidia?
$XRP
$SOL
A week ago, Wall #ستريت was still assigning nearly a 24% chance that #الفيدرالي would hold interest rates steady in December. But according to some news platforms’ tracking on Friday evening, a hold had disappeared from market pricing. The market now sees a 90.5% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 9.5% chance of a half-point hike.
Who opened the door? Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Before the release of the #التضخم data, he said a half-point hike was worth considering if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher. The figure did in fact come in at 0.3%, compared with expectations of 0.2%.
So, could things get tougher from here? The pressure could continue even if the Fed settles for a quarter-point hike. The market had priced in a 67.5% chance of two hikes by January, and the yield on the US 10-year #السندات Treasury note topped 5.15%. Persistently high yields make financing more expensive and put pressure on growth-stock valuations.
Before the December 9 decision, all eyes are on the Fed minutes on November 18 and the inflation data on the 25th. If the Fed signals more hikes than the market has priced in, even a quarter-point move could jolt the market.
This is not investment advice.
#WhoWillSucceedJensenHuangatNvidia?
$XRP
$SOL
