Nasdaq and BTC: today's correlation is something else
Don't use last week's rate-cut story to explain today's market.
Let's put the numbers on the table first, then talk views.
S&P 7,562 (5-day +2.51%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.56 (5-day +1.97%, Yahoo)
VIX 19.30 (5-day -3.11%)
My take: the dollar is strong, up 1.73% over 5 days, while BTC is down 4.32%—same direction. Don't talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto comparison: BTC 66703 (24h -4.32%), ETH 1891 (-4.32%). ETH at -4.32% is moving in lockstep with BTC at -4.32%; the exchange rate is 0.02834. With no independent trend, don't bet on altcoins alone.
What I'll watch next: VIX is now 19.30. If it rises above 18, I'll halve my futures position. I'm not going to argue with the U.S. stock market's closing price.
My position: I don't buy the first dip. Until the drop brings down open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or are you already in?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Watch
Useful info: Around the NFP and CPI releases, crypto often lags U.S. stocks by half a beat; the volume on the first 1h candle matters even more.
Idea: BTC's fast-tier fees are rising: on-chain activity is there, and spot can be steadier than futures.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 66,703 -4.32% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,891 -4.32% ETH/BTC 0.02834
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0031% Open interest 6.42B (24h -7.37) Long/short 3.0617 Binance USDⓈ-M
Supporting context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks” - Google News. I treat it only as background; the conclusion is still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources cited in the main text. This is not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Don't use last week's rate-cut story to explain today's market.
Let's put the numbers on the table first, then talk views.
S&P 7,562 (5-day +2.51%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.56 (5-day +1.97%, Yahoo)
VIX 19.30 (5-day -3.11%)
My take: the dollar is strong, up 1.73% over 5 days, while BTC is down 4.32%—same direction. Don't talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto comparison: BTC 66703 (24h -4.32%), ETH 1891 (-4.32%). ETH at -4.32% is moving in lockstep with BTC at -4.32%; the exchange rate is 0.02834. With no independent trend, don't bet on altcoins alone.
What I'll watch next: VIX is now 19.30. If it rises above 18, I'll halve my futures position. I'm not going to argue with the U.S. stock market's closing price.
My position: I don't buy the first dip. Until the drop brings down open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Are you in cash waiting for a pullback, or are you already in?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Watch
Useful info: Around the NFP and CPI releases, crypto often lags U.S. stocks by half a beat; the volume on the first 1h candle matters even more.
Idea: BTC's fast-tier fees are rising: on-chain activity is there, and spot can be steadier than futures.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 66,703 -4.32% Binance spot 24h
ETH 1,891 -4.32% ETH/BTC 0.02834
S&P 7,562 +2.51% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,136 +2.27% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.73% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.30 -3.11% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0031% Open interest 6.42B (24h -7.37) Long/short 3.0617 Binance USDⓈ-M
Supporting context: People elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks” - Google News. I treat it only as background; the conclusion is still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources cited in the main text. This is not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL